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Table 5 Prediction interval coverage by sub-region

From: Forecasting the daily demand for emergency medical ambulances in England and Wales: a benchmark model and external validation

Region

60%

70%

80%

90%

95%

BNSSG

0.639 (0.634 - 0.644)

0.746 (0.739 - 0.753)

0.844 (0.839 - 0.850)

0.922 (0.918 - 0.926)

0.959 (0.954 - 0.963)

Cornwall

0.637 (0.634 - 0.639)

0.762 (0.760 - 0.764)

0.856 (0.855 - 0.857)

0.921 (0.921 - 0.922)

0.974 (0.974 - 0.975)

Devon

0.691 (0.684 - 0.699)

0.793 (0.789 - 0.797)

0.857 (0.856 - 0.859)

0.939 (0.935 - 0.942)

0.974 (0.972 - 0.977)

Dorset

0.712 (0.708 - 0.715)

0.803 (0.800 - 0.805)

0.873 (0.871 - 0.876)

0.940 (0.938 - 0.941)

0.975 (0.974 - 0.976)

Glouc

0.626 (0.621 - 0.632)

0.730 (0.728 - 0.733)

0.835 (0.833 - 0.837)

0.936 (0.934 - 0.937)

0.963 (0.962 - 0.964)

Somerset

0.629 (0.625 - 0.633)

0.723 (0.718 - 0.728)

0.809 (0.805 - 0.813)

0.901 (0.899 - 0.903)

0.950 (0.948 - 0.951)

Wiltshire

0.665 (0.662 - 0.668)

0.762 (0.760 - 0.765)

0.853 (0.847 - 0.859)

0.928 (0.925 - 0.932)

0.961 (0.960 - 0.963)

  1. Mean (95% CI) prediction interval coverage. Figures relate to 41 folds of 7-84 days in the test set