Table 2 Statistical analysis procedure
Stage | TSCV methods | Data used |
|---|---|---|
1. Screening | Seasonal naive benchmark | Trust level series |
10 X individual standard methods | 01/01/13 - 31/12/2018 | |
5 x combination forecasters | ||
2. Elite screening | Top 2 methods from stage 1 | 7 regional series |
01/01/13 - 31/12/2018 | ||
3. Simulated forecast setting | Selected method | 7 regional series |
Train: 01/01/13 - 31/12/2018 | ||
Test: 01/01/2019 - 31/12/2019 | ||
4. External evaluation | Selected method | 13 external series |
Train: 01/01/10 - 31/12/2018 | ||
Test: 01/01/2019 - 31/12/2019 |