Environmental and clinical data utility in pediatric asthma exacerbation risk prediction models

Table 2 AUC for predicting asthma exacerbation over different time horizons and variable sets using different modeling methods

Outcome	Predicted Event Rate	Overall model		Temporal factors		Clinical factors		Spatial factors		Parsimonious model
Outcome	Predicted Event Rate	AUC	95% CI	AUC	95% CI	AUC	95% CI	AUC	95% CI	AUC	95% CI
AUC of Person-Month LASSO Models
Exacerbation in 30 days	0.015	0.753	(0.732, 0.773)	0.600	(0.594, 0.616)	0.734	(0.713, 0.756)	0.502	(0.475, 0.535)	0.667	(0.638, 0.694)
Exacerbation in 90 days	0.043	0.740	(0.718, 0.761)	0.576	(0.562, 0.591)	0.732	(0.709, 0.753)	0.492	(0.462, 0.521)	0.643	(0.616, 0.670)
Exacerbation in 180 days	0.077	0.732	(0.710, 0.753)	0.547	(0.533, 0.563)	0.729	(0.706, 0.751)	0.492	(0.463, 0.520)	0.645	(0.618, 0.672)
AUC of Person-Month Random Forest Survival Models
Exacerbation in 30 days	0.015	0.757	(0.736, 0.777)	0.608	(0.602, 0.624)	0.741	(0.720, 0.763)	0.502	(0.470, 0.535)	0.672	(0.647, 0.697)
Exacerbation in 90 days	0.043	0.747	(0.726, 0.750)	0.582	(0.567, 0.599)	0.738	(0.717, 0.758)	0.498	(0.471, 0.524)	0.644	(0.619, 0.671)
Exacerbation in 180 days	0.077	0.729	(0.707, 0.750)	0.557	0.539, 0.577)	0.725	(0.703, 0.746)	0.541	(0.512, 0.570)	0.648	(0.623, 0.673)
AUC of Person-Month Gradient Boosting (xgBoost) Models
Exacerbation in 30 days	0.015	0.761	(0.742, 0.781)	0.607	(0.601, 0.623)	0.742	(0.721, 0.763)	0.501	(0.469, 0.534)	0.664	(0.637, 0.688)
Exacerbation in 90 days	0.043	0.752	(0.730, 0.771)	0.581	(0.566, 0.597)	0.744	(0.722, 0.763)	0.488	(0.459, 0.517)	0.639	(0.613, 0.665)
Exacerbation in 180 days	0.077	0.739	(0.717, 0.760)	0.557	(0.538, 0.576)	0.730	(0.708, 0.752)	0.503	(0.474, 0.531)	0.640	(0.614, 0.665)

ISSN: 1472-6947