Model | 24 h in advance | 48 h in advance | 72 h in advance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brier score | Spiegelhalter z score | Spiegelhalter P value | Brier score | Spiegelhalter z score | Spiegelhalter P value | Brier score | Spiegelhalter z score | Spiegelhalte P value | |
LR | 0.149 | 18.39 | 0.00 | 0.147 | 18.31 | 0.00 | 0.145 | 17.96 | 0.00 |
RF | 0.124 | − 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.122 | − 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.120 | − 0.48 | 0.32 |
GBDT | 0.141 | − 5.57 | 2.53e−8 | 0.139 | − 5.71 | 8.45e−9 | 0.138 | − 5.76 | 1.7e−8 |
MMDL | 0.188 | 2.53 | 1.61e−2 | 0.190 | 2.00 | 0.08 | 0.199 | 2.54 | 3.61e−2 |
Modela | 0.167 | − 4.94 | 1.70e−6 | 0.189 | − 3.96 | 1.42e−3 | 0.177 | − 4.55 | 1.41e−3 |