Table 4 Results of the sensitivity analysis
Scenario | Ward availability (%) | ICU availability (%) | No ward HR (%) | No ICU HR (%) | No ICU or Ward HR (%) | Excess COVID-19 deaths due to capacity breach | Total COVID-19 deaths | % increase in COVID-19 deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Middling | − 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102,573 | 154 | 102,728 |
Middling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102,573 | 154 | 102,728 |
Middling | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102,573 | 154 | 102,728 |
Middling | 0 | − 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102,573 | 597 | 103,170 |
Middling | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102,573 | 0 | 102,573 |
Middling | 0 | 0 | − 20 | 0 | 0 | 102,573 | 154 | 102,728 |
Middling | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 102,573 | 154 | 102,728 |
Middling | 0 | 0 | 0 | − 20 | 0 | 102,573 | 130 | 102,703 |
Middling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 102,573 | 176 | 102,750 |
Middling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | − 20 | 102,573 | 154 | 102,728 |
Middling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 102,573 | 154 | 102,728 |
Optimistic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47,073 | 0 | 47,073 |
Pessimistic | − 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 289,983 | 103,735 | 393,718 |
Pessimistic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 289,983 | 73,711 | 363,694 |
Pessimistic | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 289,983 | 49,178 | 339,161 |
Pessimistic | 0 | − 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 289,983 | 76,382 | 366,365 |
Pessimistic | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 289,983 | 71,253 | 361,236 |
Pessimistic | 0 | 0 | − 20 | 0 | 0 | 289,983 | 66,576 | 356,559 |
Pessimistic | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 289,983 | 79,764 | 369,747 |
Pessimistic | 0 | 0 | 0 | − 20 | 0 | 289,983 | 73,472 | 363,455 |
Pessimistic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 289,983 | 73,926 | 363,909 |
Pessimistic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | − 20 | 289,983 | 72,943 | 362,926 |
Pessimistic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 289,983 | 74,197 | 364,180 |