BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Table 3 Parameter estimation and model verification of ARIMA model

From: A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS

Models	Fitted Model Statistics					Ljung-Box Q(18)
Models	Stationary R²	RMSE	MAPE	MAE	BIC	Statistics	Sig.
ARIMA(0,1,0) × (0,1,0)₁₂	0.000	0.087	30.213	0.047	−4.848	78.375	0.000
ARIMA(0,1,0) × (0,1,1)₁₂	0.205	0.057	26.869	0.037	−5.668	48.93	0.000
ARIMA(0,1,0) × (1,1,0)₁₂	0.115	0.066	28.243	0.041	−5.361	53.683	0.000
ARIMA(0,1,0) × (1,1,1)₁₂	0.210	0.057	26.806	0.037	−5.609	46.879	0.000
ARIMA(0,1,1) × (0,1,0)₁₂	0.274	0.061	24.461	0.036	−5.522	30.871	0.021
ARIMA(0,1,1) × (0,1,1)₁₂	0.419	0.045	22.464	0.030	−6.091	13.909	0.605
ARIMA(0,1,1) × (1,1,0)₁₂	0.365	0.051	23.118	0.033	−5.834	13.873	0.608
ARIMA(0,1,1) × (1,1,1)₁₂	0.428	0.046	22.079	0.030	−6.032	10.764	0.769
ARIMA(1,1,0) × (0,1,0)₁₂	0.197	0.068	26.551	0.040	−5.307	53.543	0.000
ARIMA(1,1,0) × (0,1,1)₁₂	0.369	0.049	23.588	0.033	−5.927	16.727	0.403
ARIMA(1,1,0) × (1,1,0)₁₂	0.305	0.056	24.379	0.036	−5.665	19.492	0.244
ARIMA(1,1,0) × (1,1,1)₁₂	0.374	0.049	23.353	0.033	−5.874	16.066	0.378
ARIMA (1,1,1)×(0,1,0)₁₂	0.274	0.061	24.485	0.036	−5.479	30.781	0.014
ARIMA (1,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂	0.420	0.045	22.494	0.030	−6.049	13.949	0.529
ARIMA (1,1,1)×(1,1,0)₁₂	0.365	0.052	23.095	0.033	−5.790	13.923	0.531
ARIMA (1,1,1)×(1,1,1)₁₂	0.428	0.046	22.081	0.030	−5.990	10.758	0.705

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