Latitude-based approach for detecting aberrations of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics

Table 4 Weekly reported and predicted cases per sentinel of major HFMD epidemics, Kyoto, 2011 and 2013

Year	Week	Monitoring indicator	Reported	Predicted	95 % predicted interval		Absolute error
Year	Week	Monitoring indicator	Reported	Predicted	Lower limit	Upper limit	Absolute error
2011	17	mild	0.000	0.073	0.011	0.135	0.073
	18	mild	0.054	0.068	−0.012	0.147	0.014
	19	moderate	0.122	0.085	0.038	0.132	0.037
	20	moderate	0.233	0.279	0.161	0.396	0.046
	21	strong	0.257	0.450	0.276	0.623	0.193
	22	strong	0.703	0.326	0.177	0.475	0.377
	23	strong	1.081	1.168	0.950	1.386	0.087
	24	strong	1.808	1.641	1.390	1.891	0.167
	25	strong	2.905	2.671	2.385	2.957	0.234
	26	strong	5.917	4.902	4.500	5.303	1.015
	27	activation	9.581	9.299	8.530	10.069	0.282
Average							0.230
2013	15	mild	0.000	0.000^a	0.000^a	0.063	0.000
	16	mild	0.010	0.000^a	0.000^a	0.029	0.010
	17	mild	0.040	0.000^a	0.000^a	0.065	0.040
	18	moderate	0.040	0.065	0.012	0.117	0.025
	19	moderate	0.160	0.050	0.000^a	0.107	0.110
	20	mild	0.310	0.208	0.167	0.249	0.102
	21	mild	0.340	0.462	0.384	0.540	0.122
	22	mild	0.520	0.451	0.297	0.605	0.069
	23	strong	0.510	0.612	0.498	0.726	0.102
	24	strong	0.360	0.698	0.597	0.799	0.338
	25	strong	0.850	0.474	0.305	0.643	0.376
	26	moderate	1.970	1.258	1.050	1.466	0.712
	27	moderate	2.890	3.125	2.835	3.416	0.235
	28	--	3.660	3.747	3.462	4.031	0.087
Average							0.166

ISSN: 1472-6947