Latitude-based approach for detecting aberrations of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics

Table 3 Weekly reported and predicted cases per sentinel of major HFMD epidemics, Tokyo, 2011 and 2013

Year	Week	Monitoring indicator	Reported	Predicted	95 % predicted interval		Absolute error
Year	Week	Monitoring indicator	Reported	Predicted	Lower limit	Upper limit	Absolute error
2011	17	mild	0.054	0.084	0.030	0.137	0.030
	18	mild	0.054	0.093	0.030	0.156	0.039
	19	mild	0.069	0.088	0.041	0.135	0.019
	20	moderate	0.122	0.181	0.059	0.303	0.059
	21	moderate	0.157	0.165	0.000^a	0.341	0.008
	22	moderate	0.273	0.211	0.086	0.337	0.062
	23	strong	0.556	0.467	0.244	0.689	0.089
	24	strong	0.714	0.841	0.608	1.075	0.127
	25	strong	1.342	1.347	1.004	1.690	0.005
	26	strong	2.540	2.596	2.085	3.107	0.056
	27	strong	5.038	4.881	4.163	5.600	0.157
	28	strong	8.341	7.241	6.337	8.145	1.100
	29	activation	9.531	9.569	8.712	10.426	0.038
Average							0.138
2013	18	moderate	0.090	0.162	0.118	0.206	0.072
	19	moderate	0.130	0.103	0.052	0.155	0.027
	20	mild	0.330	0.198	0.147	0.248	0.132
	21	moderate	0.450	0.448	0.387	0.510	0.002
	22	strong	0.470	0.598	0.514	0.682	0.128
	23	strong	0.640	0.595	0.499	0.691	0.045
	24	strong	0.990	0.895	0.814	0.977	0.095
	25	strong	2.050	1.270	1.125	1.415	0.780
	26	strong	4.000	3.138	2.774	3.501	0.862
	27	strong	6.010	5.878	5.335	6.420	0.132
	28	mild	10.970	8.265	7.355	9.175	2.705
	29	activation	13.710	14.565	12.410	16.721	0.855
Average							0.486

ISSN: 1472-6947