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Table 2 Algorithm performance statistics for smaller less clustered outbreaks (S1:n = 64) for false alarm (FA) rates approximating 0.05 and 0.01.

From: Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

Algorithm

mean

FA rate

mean sensitivity

mean (median) timeliness

mean (median) adjusted timeliness

EARS C1

0.048

56.3

6.4 (0)

15.8 (19.5)

EARS C2

0.045

85.9

6.0 (2)

9.1 (6)

EARS C3

0.049

96.9

3.0 (0)

3.8 (0)

NBC 7

0.050

96.9

3.7 (1)

4.5 (1)

NBC 14

0.049

96.9

3.9 (1)

4.6 (1)

NBC 28

0.052

93.8

4.8 (1)

6.3 (1)

HMM 7

0.049

98.4

3.5 (1)

3.9 (1)

HMM 14

0.051

100

5.0 (2)

5.1 (2)

HMM 28

0.050

89.1

6.9 (5)

9.2 (6)

EARS C1

0.0004

10.9

4.4 (3)

25.4 (28)

EARS C2

0.008

10.9

3.0 (2)

25.3 (28)

EARS C3

0.008

26.6

4.3 (2)

21.7 (28)

NBC 7

0.008

60.9

7.7 (4)

15.6 (16.5)

NBC 14

0.010

75.0

5.6 (2.5)

11.2 (7.5)

NBC 28

0.012

76.6

8.2 (6)

12.9 (10)

HMM 7

0.009

79.7

8.5 (7)

12.5 (11)

HMM 14

0.008

93.8

7.3 (5.5)

8.6 (6)

HMM 28

0.010

89.1

7.1 (5)

9.4 (6)