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Table 2 Algorithm performance statistics for smaller less clustered outbreaks (S1:n = 64) for false alarm (FA) rates approximating 0.05 and 0.01.

From: Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

Algorithm mean
FA rate
mean sensitivity mean (median) timeliness mean (median) adjusted timeliness
EARS C1 0.048 56.3 6.4 (0) 15.8 (19.5)
EARS C2 0.045 85.9 6.0 (2) 9.1 (6)
EARS C3 0.049 96.9 3.0 (0) 3.8 (0)
NBC 7 0.050 96.9 3.7 (1) 4.5 (1)
NBC 14 0.049 96.9 3.9 (1) 4.6 (1)
NBC 28 0.052 93.8 4.8 (1) 6.3 (1)
HMM 7 0.049 98.4 3.5 (1) 3.9 (1)
HMM 14 0.051 100 5.0 (2) 5.1 (2)
HMM 28 0.050 89.1 6.9 (5) 9.2 (6)
EARS C1 0.0004 10.9 4.4 (3) 25.4 (28)
EARS C2 0.008 10.9 3.0 (2) 25.3 (28)
EARS C3 0.008 26.6 4.3 (2) 21.7 (28)
NBC 7 0.008 60.9 7.7 (4) 15.6 (16.5)
NBC 14 0.010 75.0 5.6 (2.5) 11.2 (7.5)
NBC 28 0.012 76.6 8.2 (6) 12.9 (10)
HMM 7 0.009 79.7 8.5 (7) 12.5 (11)
HMM 14 0.008 93.8 7.3 (5.5) 8.6 (6)
HMM 28 0.010 89.1 7.1 (5) 9.4 (6)