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Table 3 Descriptive statistics for summary performance characteristics for the EARS and NBC algorithms: receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analyses

From: Applying cusum-based methods for the detection of outbreaks of Ross River virus disease in Western Australia

Algorithm median (mean) AUC0–1 median (mean) AUC0–0.01 median (mean) AUC0–0.005 median (mean) WtAUC0–1 median (mean) WtAUC0–0.01
EARS C1 0.995 (0.989) 0.0011 (0.0019) 0.0004 (0.0015) 0.959 (0.968) <0.0001 (0.0008)
EARS C2 0.996 (0.990) 0.0017 (0.0026) 0.0002 (0.0016) 0.994 (0.978) 0.0002 (0.0013)
EARS C3 0.996 (0.993) 0.0061 (0.0059) 0.0011 (0.0022) 0.991 (0.980) 0.0011 (0.0033)
NBC 7-day 1.0 (0.998) 0.0095 (0.0081) 0.0049 (0.0040) 0.990 (0.979) <0.0001 (0.0032)
NBC 14-day 1.0 (0.999) 0.0099 (0.0088) 0.0049 (0.0040) 0.988 (0.981) <0.0001 (0.0026)
NBC 28-day 1.0 (1.0) 0.0095 (0.0092) 0.0049 (0.0047) 0.990 (0.983) 0.0014 (0.0032)
NBC 56-day 1.0 (0.999) 0.0095 (0.0088) 0.0042 (0.0036) 0.977 (0.928) <0.0001 (0.0018)
p-value¥ <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.046 0.006
  1. Evaluated at a false alarm rate ≤ 0.01
  2. Evaluated at a false alarm rate ≤ 0.005
  3. ¥Friedman rank sum test
  4. WtAUC: Weighted AUC using a reference value of 7 days for valid detection
  5. EARS: Early Aberration Reporting System
  6. NBC: Negative binomial cusum with an out of control state defined as 2 standard deviations greater than the mean