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Table 1 Algorithm summary performance statistics for false alarm rates approximating 0.005

From: Applying cusum-based methods for the detection of outbreaks of Ross River virus disease in Western Australia

Algorithm false alarm rate median (mean) sensitivity Day 1 sensitivity Day 2 sensitivity Days 1–7 sensitivity CARL median (mean) timeliness median (mean) adjusted timeliness
EARS C1 0.0049 1 (0.53) 0.13 0 0.13 1.0 18.5 (54.6) 34.0 (78.8)
EARS C2 0.0042 1 (0.53) 0.33 0 0.33 1.0 0.0 (24.1) 32.0 (71.1)
EARS C3 0.0049 1 (0.60) 0.40 0 0.40 1.0 0.0 (17.9) 32.0 (68.1)
NBC 7-day 0.0049 1 (0.87) 0.2 0.07 0.40 2.0 12.0 (16.3) 14.0 (18.5)
NBC 14-day 0.0049 1 (0.93) 0.2 0.07 0.33 1.6 9.5 (13.9) 11.0 (15.2)
NBC 28-day 0.0049 1 (1.00) 0.27 0.07 0.60 2.9 5.0 (8.5) 5.0 (8.5)
NBC 56-day 0.0042 1 (0.93) 0.13 0 0.27 3.0 14.5 (19.1) 14.0 (18.8)
p-value¥ - 0.0002 - - - - 0.71 0.008
  1. Test threshold that produced a false alarm rate ≤ 0.005
  2. Detection on the first outbreak day is equivalent to a timeliness of 0 days
  3. ¥Friedman rank sum test
  4. CARL: Conditional Average Run Length – conditional on the detection of the outbreak during the first 7 days
  5. EARS: Early Aberration Reporting System
  6. NBC: Negative binomial cusum with an out of control state defined as 2 standard deviations greater than the mean