Automated real time constant-specificity surveillance for disease outbreaks

Table 1 Comparative detection performance

Detection method	Flat outbreak	Linear outbreak	Spike outbreak
Autoregression	0.94	0.90	0.88
Serfling	0.93	0.88	0.89
Trimmed seasonal	0.95	0.91	0.89
Wavelet	0.93	0.87	0.86
Generalized linear	0.95	0.91	0.91
Expectation-variance	0.95	0.91	0.91

ROC curve areas for traditional and expectation-variance detection models applied to three different types of outbreaks superimposed on respiratory visits to an urban pediatric ED, August 1998 – July 2004.

ISSN: 1472-6947