Table 2 Bias and MSE of initial reproduction number estimation methods
From: The R0 package: a toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks
Bias (MSE) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R0 | Aggregation (days) | Method | |||
EG | ML | TD | SB | ||
No overdispersion (k = 1) | |||||
1.5 | 1 | 0.12 (0.0467) | 0.02 (0.0164) | 0.04 (0.0336) | −0.15 (0.0745) |
3 | 0.07 (0.0386) | −0.38 (0.1429) | −0.4 (0.16) | −0.1 (0.0277) | |
6 | 0.07 (0.0431) | −0.49 (0.2408) | −0.79 (0.6281) | −0.09 (0.0371) | |
2 | 1 | 0.11 (0.0589) | −0.17 (0.0571) | −0.11 (0.0736) | −0.4 (0.1814) |
3 | 0 (0.0496) | −0.84 (0.7041) | −0.87 (0.7573) | −0.32 (0.1222) | |
6 | −0.03 (0.0618) | −0.99 (0.9789) | −1.33 (1.781) | −0.31 (0.1306) | |
3 | 1 | −0.07 (0.1449) | −0.67 (0.5547) | −0.47 (0.317) | −1.1 (1.2532) |
3 | −0.3 (0.2492) | −1.8 (3.2396) | −1.86 (3.4432) | −0.92 (0.8585) | |
6 | −0.33 (0.2872) | −1.99 (3.9521) | −2.45 (5.9935) | −0.89 (0.8277) | |
Large overdispersion (k = 4) | |||||
1.5 | 1 | 0.28 (0.1609) | 0.16 (0.0679) | 0.33 (0.1913) | −0.05 (0.0881) |
3 | 0.11 (0.0715) | −0.38 (0.1444) | −0.42 (0.1816) | −0.06 (0.035) | |
6 | 0.08 (0.0694) | −0.49 (0.2415) | −0.83 (0.6906) | −0.04 (0.0574) | |
2 | 1 | 0.13 (0.1109) | −0.15 (0.0696) | 0.05 (0.1238) | −0.4 (0.197) |
3 | 0 (0.086) | −0.84 (0.7108) | −0.89 (0.8007) | −0.32 (0.1328) | |
6 | −0.03 (0.0988) | −0.99 (0.9792) | −1.36 (1.8686) | −0.3 (0.1517) | |
3 | 1 | −0.07 (0.2157) | −0.65 (0.5699) | −0.45 (0.3457) | −1.11 (1.2745) |
3 | −0.3 (0.3035) | −1.8 (3.2337) | −1.86 (3.4698) | −0.93 (0.898) | |
6 | −0.36 (0.366) | −1.99 (3.9527) | −2.43 (5.9218) | −0.94 (0.9421) | |