Figure 2

Sensitivity of the reproduction ratio to the choice of the time period for estimation. A) Maximum deviance R-squared statistic for time periods of increasing duration. The red dot corresponds with the best value. B) Estimates of the reproduction ratio according to various begin and end dates for the time period. The value corresponding to the best fit is shown as a dot, and the solid black lines show the limits of the corresponding 95%CI. In other words, an estimate that falls within the 95%CI of the value showing the best fit can be achieved by using a wide range of begin and end dates. These dates are the ones producing values between the solid black lines.