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Table 4 Life years gained per 1000 individuals screened compared to no screening by risk factor cohort and screening regimen: Mean predictions are shown with 95% prediction intervals

From: Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

  Age at initiation (years)  
  50 45 Difference*
Risk Factors:    
None 128 (108, 155) 146 (122, 181) 18 (14, 26)
100% more adenomas 248 (210, 298) 281 (236, 346) 33 (25, 48)
30% faster adenoma growth 236 (198, 272) 276 (230, 322) 41 (21, 51)
Preclinical transition sizes as if 30% larger 232 (198, 267) 271 (229, 317) 39 (31, 50)
  1. * Estimated difference in life years gained per 1000 individuals with screening initiated at age 45 versus initiation at age 50 years.