Markov Model tree structure and monthly state diagram. Figure 1a Markov Model tree structure up to the monthly Markov cycle. The initial decision comparison is between the natural history core and a treatment strategy. The treatment strategy arm accounts compliance with therapy by putting those who stop therapy back into the natural history core. The health states incorporated into the model are those at risk for CKD, the CKD stages, dialysis, kidney transplant, and death.
Figure 1b State diagram displaying health states of the Markov monthly cycle. Each month an individual may remain in their current CKD stage, change CKD stage (either improving or declining a stage), enter dialysis or transplantation, develop bone disease, have a myocardial infarction, have a stroke from which they become disabled, have a stroke from which they are not disabled, or die. The likelihood of these events occurring are dependent upon the presence of specific covariates as well as the current CKD stage.