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Table 3 Predicting adverse outcome (death or institutionalization) at discharge and at one year by MAPLe-AC based on pre-morbid, admission and 7th day or discharge information in multivariate regression analyses adjusted for sex, age and reason for hospitalization

From: Method for Assigning Priority Levels in Acute Care (MAPLe-AC) predicts outcomes of acute hospital care of older persons - a cross-national validation

  Adverse outcome at discharge Adverse outcome at one year
  Nordic hospitals, in 2000-2001 Canadian hospitals, in 2001 Nordic hospitals, in 2000-2001
n 123/640 155/238 281/492
Pre-morbid information OR1 95% CI2 OR 95% CI OR 95% CI
Sex (Women = 1) 1.15 0.74 1.78 0.72 0.45 1.15 0.66 0.47 0.92
Age 75-79 1.00    1.00    1.00   
Age 80-84 1.21 0.66 2.21 0.92 0.48 1.78 1.02 0.66 1.58
Age 85-89 1.22 0.67 2.25 1.61 0.84 3.07 0.98 0.63 1.53
Age 90+ 1.66 0.87 3.16 2.56 1.23 5.31 1.24 0.75 2.07
Reason for hospitalization          
New problem 1.00    1.00    1.00   
Exacerbation of existing problem 0.83 0.51 1.36 0.64 0.38 1.97 1.27 0.88 1.84
Both new and old problem 1.39 0.83 2.35 1.32 0.67 2.60 1.78 1.16 2.73
MAPLe-AC pre-morbid          
Low 1.00    1.00    1.00   
Mild 3.50 1.36 9.03 1.42 0.62 3.25 2.82 1.62 4.91
Moderate 8.58 4.13 17.83 2.71 1.42 5.16 3.45 2.24 5.31
High 9.39 4.50 19.57 5.15 2.75 9.66 5.03 3.21 7.88
Very high 19.31 8.13 45.87 10.79 4.66 25.00 17.25 7.99 37.20
Admission information OR 95% CI OR 95% CI OR 95% CI
Sex (women = 1) 1.06 0.69 1.64 0.81 0.51 1.31 0.64 0.46 0.88
Age 75-79 1.00    1.00    1.00   
Age 80-84 1.39 0.77 2.50 1.58 0.81 3.07 1.15 0.76 1.75
Age 85-89 1.23 0.68 2.23 2.34 1.11 4.92 1.03 0.67 1.59
Age 90+ 1.93 1.02 3.65 0.79 0.47 1.34 1.43 0.87 2.36
Reason for hospitalization          
New problem 1.00    1.00    1.00   
Exacerbation of existing problem 1.04 0.65 1.67 0.79 0.47 1.34 1.47 1.03 2.11
Both new and old problem 1.60 0.96 2.67 1.77 0.88 3.55 1.97 1.30 2.99
MAPLe-AC admission          
Low 1.00    1.00    1.00   
Mild 1.97 0.32 12.20 0.42 0.10 1.68 0.89 0.39 2.02
Moderate 5.69 1.34 24.11 1.43 0.61 3.32 1.78 0.99 3.19
High 12.56 2.96 53.29 6.73 2.97 15.24 3.79 2.06 6.98
Very high 22.54 5.06 100.43 8.01 3.23 19.88 7.78 3.70 16.35
7 th day or discharge information OR 95% CI OR 95% CI OR 95% CI
Sex 1.13 0.73 1.75 0.85 0.52 1.39 0.65 0.47 0.90
Age 75-79 1.00    1.00    1.00   
Age 80-84 1.27 0.70 2.33 0.88 0.44 1.77 1.08 0.70 1.65
Age 85-89 1.17 0.64 2.14 1.36 0.68 2.69 1.02 0.66 1.57
Age 90+ 1.65 0.87 3.13 2.12 0.98 4.58 1.26 0.76 2.09
Reason for hospitalization          
New problem 1.00    1.00    1.00   
Exacerbation of existing problem 0.99 0.61 1.61 0.78 0.46 1.35 1.44 1.00 2.06
Both new and old problem 1.41 0.84 2.37 2.00 0.99 4.06 1.82 1.20 2.77
MAPLe-AC 7 th day or discharge          
Low 1.00       1.00   
Mild 4.22 0.80 22.23     1.89 1.02 3.49
Moderate 18.06 4.29 75.99 1.00    3.30 2.01 5.43
High 25.09 5.95 105.89 4.83 2.83 8.25 5.61 3.34 9.41
Very high 51.71 11.70 228.66 11.07 5.76 21.29 8.45 4.36 16.39
Tests Pre-morbid Admission 7th day/discharge Pre-morbid Admission 7th day/discharge Pre-morbid Admission 7th day/discharge
R-square, % 19.9 14.7 20.3 23.4 29.5 30.1 20.5 14.6 16.1
c-statistics (AUC) 0.76 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.78 0.78 0.73 0.69 0.70
  1. 1 OR = Odds Ratio, 2 Confidence Interval