Table 3 Predicting adverse outcome (death or institutionalization) at discharge and at one year by MAPLe-AC based on pre-morbid, admission and 7th day or discharge information in multivariate regression analyses adjusted for sex, age and reason for hospitalization
Adverse outcome at discharge | Adverse outcome at one year | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nordic hospitals, in 2000-2001 | Canadian hospitals, in 2001 | Nordic hospitals, in 2000-2001 | |||||||
n | 123/640 | 155/238 | 281/492 | ||||||
Pre-morbid information | OR1 | 95% CI2 | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | |||
Sex (Women = 1) | 1.15 | 0.74 | 1.78 | 0.72 | 0.45 | 1.15 | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.92 |
Age 75-79 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
Age 80-84 | 1.21 | 0.66 | 2.21 | 0.92 | 0.48 | 1.78 | 1.02 | 0.66 | 1.58 |
Age 85-89 | 1.22 | 0.67 | 2.25 | 1.61 | 0.84 | 3.07 | 0.98 | 0.63 | 1.53 |
Age 90+ | 1.66 | 0.87 | 3.16 | 2.56 | 1.23 | 5.31 | 1.24 | 0.75 | 2.07 |
Reason for hospitalization | |||||||||
New problem | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
Exacerbation of existing problem | 0.83 | 0.51 | 1.36 | 0.64 | 0.38 | 1.97 | 1.27 | 0.88 | 1.84 |
Both new and old problem | 1.39 | 0.83 | 2.35 | 1.32 | 0.67 | 2.60 | 1.78 | 1.16 | 2.73 |
MAPLe-AC pre-morbid | |||||||||
Low | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
Mild | 3.50 | 1.36 | 9.03 | 1.42 | 0.62 | 3.25 | 2.82 | 1.62 | 4.91 |
Moderate | 8.58 | 4.13 | 17.83 | 2.71 | 1.42 | 5.16 | 3.45 | 2.24 | 5.31 |
High | 9.39 | 4.50 | 19.57 | 5.15 | 2.75 | 9.66 | 5.03 | 3.21 | 7.88 |
Very high | 19.31 | 8.13 | 45.87 | 10.79 | 4.66 | 25.00 | 17.25 | 7.99 | 37.20 |
Admission information | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | |||
Sex (women = 1) | 1.06 | 0.69 | 1.64 | 0.81 | 0.51 | 1.31 | 0.64 | 0.46 | 0.88 |
Age 75-79 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
Age 80-84 | 1.39 | 0.77 | 2.50 | 1.58 | 0.81 | 3.07 | 1.15 | 0.76 | 1.75 |
Age 85-89 | 1.23 | 0.68 | 2.23 | 2.34 | 1.11 | 4.92 | 1.03 | 0.67 | 1.59 |
Age 90+ | 1.93 | 1.02 | 3.65 | 0.79 | 0.47 | 1.34 | 1.43 | 0.87 | 2.36 |
Reason for hospitalization | |||||||||
New problem | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
Exacerbation of existing problem | 1.04 | 0.65 | 1.67 | 0.79 | 0.47 | 1.34 | 1.47 | 1.03 | 2.11 |
Both new and old problem | 1.60 | 0.96 | 2.67 | 1.77 | 0.88 | 3.55 | 1.97 | 1.30 | 2.99 |
MAPLe-AC admission | |||||||||
Low | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
Mild | 1.97 | 0.32 | 12.20 | 0.42 | 0.10 | 1.68 | 0.89 | 0.39 | 2.02 |
Moderate | 5.69 | 1.34 | 24.11 | 1.43 | 0.61 | 3.32 | 1.78 | 0.99 | 3.19 |
High | 12.56 | 2.96 | 53.29 | 6.73 | 2.97 | 15.24 | 3.79 | 2.06 | 6.98 |
Very high | 22.54 | 5.06 | 100.43 | 8.01 | 3.23 | 19.88 | 7.78 | 3.70 | 16.35 |
7 th day or discharge information | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | OR | 95% CI | |||
Sex | 1.13 | 0.73 | 1.75 | 0.85 | 0.52 | 1.39 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 0.90 |
Age 75-79 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
Age 80-84 | 1.27 | 0.70 | 2.33 | 0.88 | 0.44 | 1.77 | 1.08 | 0.70 | 1.65 |
Age 85-89 | 1.17 | 0.64 | 2.14 | 1.36 | 0.68 | 2.69 | 1.02 | 0.66 | 1.57 |
Age 90+ | 1.65 | 0.87 | 3.13 | 2.12 | 0.98 | 4.58 | 1.26 | 0.76 | 2.09 |
Reason for hospitalization | |||||||||
New problem | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
Exacerbation of existing problem | 0.99 | 0.61 | 1.61 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 1.35 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 2.06 |
Both new and old problem | 1.41 | 0.84 | 2.37 | 2.00 | 0.99 | 4.06 | 1.82 | 1.20 | 2.77 |
MAPLe-AC 7 th day or discharge | |||||||||
Low | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||||||
Mild | 4.22 | 0.80 | 22.23 | 1.89 | 1.02 | 3.49 | |||
Moderate | 18.06 | 4.29 | 75.99 | 1.00 | 3.30 | 2.01 | 5.43 | ||
High | 25.09 | 5.95 | 105.89 | 4.83 | 2.83 | 8.25 | 5.61 | 3.34 | 9.41 |
Very high | 51.71 | 11.70 | 228.66 | 11.07 | 5.76 | 21.29 | 8.45 | 4.36 | 16.39 |
Tests | Pre-morbid | Admission | 7th day/discharge | Pre-morbid | Admission | 7th day/discharge | Pre-morbid | Admission | 7th day/discharge |
R-square, % | 19.9 | 14.7 | 20.3 | 23.4 | 29.5 | 30.1 | 20.5 | 14.6 | 16.1 |
c-statistics (AUC) | 0.76 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.70 |