Table 2 Performance of the risk models in the derivation dataset

Machine Learning model

χ² = 7.35, p = 0.393

Predicted risk of 3%*:

Sensitivity = 67.1%

Specificity = 94.1%

PPV = 50.2%

NPV = 87.6%

Traditional logistic regression model

χ² = 50.69, p < 0.001

Predicted risk of 2%*:

Sensitivity = 62.2%

Specificity = 65.8%

PPV = 40.9%

NPV = 82.1%

Enhanced logistic regression model

χ² = 9.65, p = 0.290

Predicted risk of 2%*:

Sensitivity = 66.3%;

Specificity = 79.1%;

PPV = 47.5%;

NPV = 84.4%