From: Machine learning based forecast for the prediction of inpatient bed demand
Metric | Model | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2-day ahead with weekend data | ||||||
MAPE (%) | K-SVR | 1.41 | 1.07 | 0.58 | 2.62 | 1.42 |
K-SVR(3) | 1.83 | 1.40 | 0.83 | 2.62 | 1.67 | |
ARIMA | 3.87 | 2.62 | 8.25 | 3.13 | 4.47 | |
MAE (bed/day) | K-SVR | 4.87 | 3.61 | 2.08 | 9.01 | 4.89 |
K-SVR(3) | 6.33 | 4.75 | 2.94 | 8.98 | 5.75 | |
ARIMA | 14.15 | 9.61 | 26.42 | 10.84 | 15.26 | |
RMSE (bed/day) | K-SVR | 6.88 | 4.51 | 2.36 | 9.32 | 5.77 |
K-SVR(3) | 7.74 | 5.06 | 3.39 | 9.92 | 6.99 | |
ARIMA | 16.98 | 10.49 | 29.04 | 13.26 | 17.44 | |
Error variance | K-SVR | 2.10E−04 | 6.00E−05 | 0.00E+00 | 5.00E−05 | 8.00E−05 |
K-SVR(3) | 2.63E−04 | 6.13E−05 | 4.56E−05 | 2.76E−04 | 1.61E−04 | |
ARIMA | 7.51E−04 | 1.56E−04 | 2.12E−03 | 5.91E−04 | 9.04E−04 | |
2-day ahead without weekend data | ||||||
MAPE (%) | K-SVR | 3.18 | 4.10 | 2.75 | 3.33 | 3.34 |
K-SVR(3) | 6.21 | 4.32 | 6.17 | 5.98 | 5.67 | |
ARIMA | 3.97 | 3.16 | 9.75 | 3.80 | 5.17 | |
MAE (bed/day) | K-SVR | 11.08 | 13.91 | 9.89 | 11.46 | 11.59 |
K-SVR(3) | 21.72 | 14.74 | 21.65 | 20.56 | 19.67 | |
ARIMA | 14.41 | 11.32 | 30.98 | 12.97 | 17.42 | |
RMSE (bed/day) | K-SVR | 12.39 | 17.84 | 12.79 | 13.38 | 14.10 |
K-SVR(3) | 29.48 | 17.69 | 25.68 | 25.51 | 24.96 | |
ARIMA | 16.73 | 12.43 | 38.59 | 14.52 | 20.57 | |
Error variance | K-SVR | 2.60E−04 | 1.12E−03 | 5.10E−04 | 4.00E−04 | 5.70E−04 |
K-SVR(3) | 3.02E−03 | 9.51E−04 | 1.43E−03 | 1.79E−03 | 1.80E−03 | |
ARIMA | 6.41E−04 | 2.82E−04 | 7.28E−03 | 4.88E−04 | 2.17E−03 |