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Table 2 Credible interval overlap measures, area overlap measures, standardized differences in means (SMD), and Hellinger distances based on posterior samples from the original calibrated model (\(p_{orig}(\theta \mid y)\)), the start from scratch method for recalibration that incorporates new screen-detection rate targets (\(p_{scratch}(\theta \mid y,z)\)) and the sequential recalibration method that starts from the original calibrated posterior samples when adding in the new target (\(p_{seq}(\theta \mid y,z)\))

From: Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

 

\(p_{orig}(\theta \mid y)\) and

\(p_{scratch}(\theta \mid y,z)\)

\(p_{seq}(\theta \mid y,z)\) and

\(p_{scratch}(\theta \mid y,z)\)

Parameter

CI

overlap

Area

overlap

SMD

Hellinger

CI

overlap

Area

overlap

SMD

Hellinger

Sojourn time

 \(\lambda _2\)

0.57

0.14

1.75

0.70

0.93

0.88

0.06

0.07

 \(\lambda _1\)

0.00

0.01

5.76

0.98

0.98

0.90

0.11

0.05

 \(\lambda _3\)

0.04

0.04

2.76

0.90

0.96

0.92

0.02

0.05