Study | Cohort origin | N (develop) | Outcome | Method | Covariates | Performance | Test cohort # evaluable | Test cohort performance |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A] An interpretable mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients [42] | Wuhan, China | 351 | Mortality* | Decision tree | (3) CRP, LDH, lymphocyte percentage | PPV 96.9% NPV 98.4% | 145 (70%)*** | AUC 0.69 (0.60–0.79) |
B] Development and validation of a clinical risk score to predict the occurrence of critical illness of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 [19]a | China | 1590 | Criticality** | Logistic regression (LR) | (10) Age, cancer, direct bilirubin, comorbidities, dyspnea, hemoptysis, LDH, neutrophils/lymphocytes, unconscious, CXR | AUC 0.88 (0.84–0.93) | 144 (70%) | AUC 0.84 (0.78–0.91) |
C] Development and validation of prognosis model of mortality risk in patients with COVID-19 [20] | Wuhan, China | 292 | Mortality | LR | (3) Age, LDH, CRP | AUC 0.95 | 141 (69%) | AUC 0.89 (0.82–0.96) |
D] Diagnostic performance of initial blood urea nitrogen combined with D-dimer levels for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients [26] | Wuhan, China | 305 | Mortality | LR | (2) BUN, D-dimer | AUC 0.94 (0.90–0.97) | 150 (72%) | AUC 0.73 (0.62–0.83) |
E] Laboratory findings and a combined multifactorial approach to predict death in critically ill patients with COVID-19: a retrospective study [28] | Wuhan, China | 336 | Mortality | LR | (3) BUN, D-dimer, lymphocyte percentage | AUC 0.99 (0.98–1.0) | 148 (71%)*** | AUC 0.72 (0.61–0.82) |
F] Development and external validation of a prognostic multivariable model on admission for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 [44] | Wuhan, China | 299 | Mortality | LR | (4) Age, LDH, lymphocyte count, O2 Saturation | AUC 0.98 (0.96–1.0) | 150 (72%) | AUC 0.84 (0.73–0.94) |
G] Early prediction of mortality risk among severe COVID-19 patients using machine learning [46]b | Wuhan, China | 183 | Mortality | LR | (4) Age, CRP, D-dimer, lymphocyte count | AUC 0.90 | 142 (69%) | AUC 0.68 (0.51–0.81) |
H] Risk prediction for poor outcome and death in hospital in-patients with COVID19: derivation in Wuhan, China and external validation in London, UK [(51)]c | Wuhan, China | 775 | Mortality | LR | (7) Age, CRP, sex, Cr, lymphocytes, neutrophils, platelets count | AUC 0.91 | 165 (80%) | AUC 0.72 (0.58–0.86) |
UIH mortality model | Chicago, USA | 309 | Mortality | Random forest | (11) Age, AST, BMI, Cr, CRP, diastolic BP, ferritin, O2 saturation, platelet count, RDW, WBC | AUC 0.98 (0.96–1.0) | 152 (73%) | AUC 0.84 (0.74–0.94) |
UIH criticality model | Chicago, USA | 309 | Criticality | Random forest | (11) Age, ALT, AST, Cr, CRP, ferritin, RDW, neutrophils/lymphocytes, O2 saturation, platelet count, WBC | AUC 0.97 (0.94–1.0) | 152 (73%) | AUC 0.83 (0.76–0.90) |