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Table 2 Sensitivity analyses for the MACE surrogate endpoint using alternative grouping strategy: grouping by various actual and synthetic geographical regions

From: Surrogate endpoint evaluation using data from one large global randomized controlled trial

Geographical regions

CV death

All-cause death

 

R2group (95% CI)

Approach 1

0.95 (0.76, 1.00)

0.77 (0.00, 1.00)

Group 1 (North America): CA, US

  

Group 2 (Europe): AT, BE, CZ, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, GB, GR, IE, IL, IT, NL, NO, PL, RO, RS, SE

  

Group 3 (Asia): CN, IN, KR, TW

  

Group 4 (Rest of the World): AE, AU, BR, MX, RU, TR, ZA

  

Approach 2

0.85 (0.58, 1.00)

0.53 (0.00, 1.00)

Group 1 (Canada): CA

  

Group 2 (United States of America): US

  

Group 3 (Mid- and Northern Europe): AT, BE, DE, DK, FI, FR, GB, IE, IL, NL, NO, SE

  

Group 4 (Eastern Europe: CZ, PL, RO, RS

  

Group 5 (Southern Europe): ES, GR, IT

  

Group 6 (Asia): CN, IN, KR, TW

  

Group 7 (Rest of the World): AE, AU, BR, MX, RU, TR, ZA

  

Approach 3

0.77 (0.47, 1.00)

0.32 (0.00, 0.89)

Group 1: (Canada): CA

  

Group 2: (United States of America): US

  

Group 3: (Mid Europe) AT, BE, DE, FR, IL, NL

  

Group 4: (Eastern Europe) CZ, PL, RO, RS

  

Group 5: (Southern Europe): ES, GR, IT

  

Group 6: (Northern Europe): DK, FI, NO, SE

  

Group 7: (United Kingdom and Ireland): GB, IE

  

Group 8: (Asia): CN, IN, KR, TW

  

Group 9: (Rest of the World): AE, AU, BR, MX, RU, TR

  

Group 10: (Southern Africa): ZA

  
  1. Regions used for Approach 1 were the regions used in the subgroup analyses as specified in the LEADER trial protocol. In Approach 2 and Approach 3, more groups were derived by grouping countries by geography. The coefficient of determination (R2) and the associated 95% CI were derived from a weighted linear regression model of the treatment effect (hazard ratio between liraglutide and placebo) for the surrogate endpoint vs that for the true endpoint
  2. CI confidence interval, CV cardiovascular, E number of events (the first occurrence of the event was considered), N number of participants, MACE major adverse cardiovascular event (three-component composite primary outcome comprising first occurrence of a not-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction or CV death)
  3. AE United Arab Emirates, AT Austria, AU Australia, BE Belgium, BR Brazil, CA Canada, CN China, CZ Czech Republic, DE Germany, DK Denmark, ES Spain, FI Finland, FR France, GB United Kingdom, GR Greece, IE Ireland, IL Israel, IN India, IT Italy, KR Korea, Republic of MX Mexico, NL Netherlands, NO Norway, PL Poland, RO Romania, RS Serbia, RU Russian Federation, SE Sweden, TR Turkey, TW Taiwan, Republic of China, US United States of America, ZA South Africa