Construction of a demand and capacity model for intensive care and hospital ward beds, and mortality from COVID-19

Table 1 Hospital care compartments, proportion occupancy and the mortality rates under three capacity scenarios

Proportion	Care segment	Proportion in each group	COVID-19 Mortality: in capacity	COVID-19 Mortality: no ICU	COVID-19 Mortality: no ward or ICU
92%	General ward care	0.6	0.01	0.01	0.03
	Ward care: O₂ > 35%	0.17	0.01	0.01	0.5
	Ward care: O₂ > 35% (Ceiling)	0.23	0.4	0.4	0.95
8%	ICU: Supportive/HFO	0.48	0.01	0.02	0.75
	ICU: NIV/CPAP	0.16	0.01	0.02	0.95
	ICU: NIV/CPAP (Ceiling)	0.12	0.83	0.9	1
	ICU: IMV ± ECMO	0.24	0.4	1	1

ICU—intensive care unit, HFO—high flow oxygen, NIV—non-invasive ventilation, CPAP—continuous positive airways pressure, IMV—invasive mechanical ventilation, ECMO—extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, Ceiling—this refers to the most intensive level of care that is appropriate to each patient depending on their level of frailty and usually determined by the Clinical Frailty Score (CFS).

ISSN: 1472-6947