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Table 5 AUROC results when predicting the outcomes within 3 years of the treatment for depression

From: An empirical analysis of dealing with patients who are lost to follow-up when developing prognostic models using a cohort design

Outcome (outcome count with partial time-at-risk/ outcome count with full time-at-risk)

Solution

Test Data 1: All patients with partial time-at-risk are removed (~ 47,000)

Test Data 2: All patients with partial time-at-risk are included (~ 125,000)

Test Data 3: All non-outcome patients with partial time-at-risk are removed

Acute liver injury incident event (107/43)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.755 (0.67–0.84)

0.786 (0.74–0.831)

0.82 (0.776–0.864)

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.767 (0.683–0.851)

0.811 (0.765–0.858)

0.836 (0.79–0.882)

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.701 (0.603–0.8)

0.713 (0.661–0.765)

0.852 (0.804–0.901)

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.765 (0.681–0.849)

0.806 (0.759–0.853)

0.846 (0.802–0.89)

Ventricular arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death incident event (126/32)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.797 (0.721–0.874)

0.799 (0.762–0.837)

0.829 (0.792–0.865)

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.809 (0.721–0.897)

0.825 (0.787–0.862)

0.853 (0.816–0.891)

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.788 (0.706–0.871)

0.76 (0.72–0.801)

0.892 (0.859–0.925)

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.816 (0.731–0.902)

0.826 (0.788–0.864)

0.866 (0.83–0.902)

Ischemic stroke—all inpatient, incident event (185/94)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.832 (0.793–0.871)

0.83 (0.805–0.854)

0.846 (0.822–0.87)

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.829 (0.791–0.866)

0.851 (0.829–0.874)

0.843 (0.819–0.866)

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.834 (0.798–0.87)

0.754 (0.727–0.781)

0.879 (0.857–0.902)

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.837 (0.799–0.874)

0.843 (0.82–0.866)

0.862 (0.839–0.885)

Acute myocardial infarction incident event (273/111)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.8 (0.759–0.841)

0.804 (0.78–0.829)

0.838 (0.815–0.861)

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.809 (0.768–0.85)

0.83 (0.806–0.853)

0.845 (0.822–0.869)

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.794 (0.754–0.834)

0.75 (0.725–0.775)

0.889 (0.867–0.911)

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.809 (0.768–0.849)

0.825 (0.801–0.849)

0.861 (0.838–0.883)

Delirium incident event (359/148)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.818 (0.786–0.85)

0.813 (0.793–0.833)

0.851 (0.833–0.87)

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.832 (0.801–0.863)

0.846 (0.828–0.864)

0.854 (0.836–0.873)

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.816 (0.784–0.847)

0.766 (0.745–0.787)

0.895 (0.879–0.912)

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.831 (0.801–0.862)

0.842 (0.824–0.86)

0.873 (0.856–0.89)

Gastrointestinal hemhorrage incident event (430/210)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.754 (0.721–0.787)

0.737 (0.714–0.76)

0.79 (0.768–0.811)

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.765 (0.732–0.798)

0.767 (0.745–0.789)

0.784 (0.763–0.806)

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.749 (0.716–0.782)

0.651 (0.627–0.674)

0.84 (0.819–0.861)

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.776 (0.745–0.808)

0.761 (0.739–0.783)

0.81 (0.789–0.831)

Decreased libido incident event (643/391)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.698 (0.674–0.722)

0.713 (0.695–0.732)

0.703 (0.684–0.722)

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.705 (0.682–0.729)

0.738 (0.72–0.755)

0.667 (0.646–0.687)

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.683 (0.659–0.708)

0.582 (0.563–0.601)

0.769 (0.751–0.788)

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.708 (0.685–0.731)

0.73 (0.712–0.747)

0.705 (0.687–0.724)

Seizure incident event (712/313)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.783 (0.757–0.809)

0.767 (0.75–0.784)

0.805 (0.789–0.822)

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.779 (0.753–0.806)

0.787 (0.77–0.804)

0.788 (0.77–0.806)

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.753 (0.725–0.78)

0.674 (0.656–0.692)

0.849 (0.833–0.865)

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.782 (0.756–0.808)

0.777 (0.76–0.794)

0.815 (0.798–0.832)

Alopecia incident event (1268/690)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.684 (0.666–0.702)

0.692

0.695

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.687 (0.669–0.706)

0.713

0.638

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.653 (0.633–0.672)

0.547

0.765

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.691 (0.673–0.71)

0.704

0.698

Tinnitus incident event (1419/760)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.69 (0.671–0.709)

0.681

0.682

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.691 (0.672–0.71)

0.701

0.648

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.644 (0.624–0.663)

0.538

0.764

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.695 (0.676–0.713)

0.689

0.702

Vertigo incident event (1663/911)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.696 (0.679–0.713)

0.699

0.698

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.697 (0.68–0.714)

0.727

0.665

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.672 (0.655–0.69)

0.568

0.781

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.709 (0.693–0.726)

0.714

0.723

Fracture incident event (2222/1002)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.76

0.753

0.783

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.762

0.765

0.75

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.72

0.636

0.831

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.764

0.755

0.792

Hyponatremia incident event (3032/1281)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.812

0.81

0.839

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.813

0.819

0.818

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.787

0.71

0.88

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.812

0.812

0.846

Suicide and suicidal ideation incident event (3382/1549)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.822

0.829

0.849

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.821

0.839

0.827

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.807

0.702

0.882

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.822

0.834

0.846

Hypothyroidism incident event (4119/2330)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.77

0.772

0.776

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.773

0.794

0.739

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.748

0.649

0.827

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.773

0.777

0.781

Hypotension incident event (4385/1877)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.793

0.798

0.831

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.797

0.812

0.811

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.772

0.7

0.873

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.798

0.803

0.841

Constipation incident event (7865/3934)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.69

0.684

0.727

Logistic keep lost to follow-up

0.688

0.708

0.673

Logistic remove non-outcomes lost to follow-up

0.663

0.569

0.791

Cox keep lost to follow-up

0.694

0.691

0.738

Diarrhea incident event (9047/4606)

Logistic remove lost to follow-up

0.674

0.659

0.705