A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS

Table 4 The predictive monthly incidence of AIDS in 2017 based by ARIMA(0,1,1) × (0,1,1)₁₂

Month	Actual value	Predictive value	UCL	LCL
201,701	0.1810	0.2164	0.3437	0.1280
201,702	0.2405	0.2162	0.3502	0.1246
201,703	0.3746	0.3496	0.5772	0.1966
201,704	0.2994	0.3645	0.6128	0.2002
201,705	0.3634	0.3672	0.6281	0.1970
201,706	0.4279	0.4065	0.7069	0.2132
201,707	0.358	0.4077	0.7204	0.2092
201,708	0.3905	0.3756	0.6740	0.1887
201,709	0.3821	0.4073	0.7418	0.200
201,710	0.3244	0.3241	0.5988	0.1563
201,711	0.4438	0.3752	0.7031	0.1773
201,712	0.4789	0.4284	0.8137	0.1986

ISSN: 1472-6947