From: Identifying patients at highest-risk: the best timing to apply a readmission predictive model
Variables | OR | (95% CI) | P value |
---|---|---|---|
Chronic condition | |||
CHFP | 1.16 | (1.07–1.25) | < 0.001 |
COPDP | 1.19 | (1.10–1.29) | < 0.001 |
CRFP | 1.18 | (1.09–1.27) | < 0.001 |
MalignancyP | 1.02 | (0.93–1.13) | 0.658 |
ArrhythmiaP | 1.03 | (0.96–1.11) | 0.446 |
DisabilityP | 1.30 | (1.21–1.40) | < 0.001 |
Oncology (treatment phase)H | 1.13 | (1.00–1.26) | 0.041 |
Body mass indexP | 0.99 | (0.98–0.99) | < 0.001 |
No. hospital admissions in the past yearP | 1.13 | (1.10–1.15) | < 0.001 |
No. primary care and specialist visits in the past yearP | 1.00 | (1.00–1.00) | 0.522 |
Residing in hospital’s catchment areaP | 0.65–1.62 | 0.06–1.00 | |
No. days from last hospitalizationPH | 1.00 | (1.00–1.00) | < 0.001 |
Index admission LOSH > =5 d | 1.26 | (1.18–1.35) | < 0.001 |
Procedure (any ICD-9 codes) during hospital stayH | 0.84 | (0.71–0.98) | 0.026 |
Index admission typeH: urgent | 2.09 | (1.65–2.66) | < 0.001 |
Low hemoglobin level at dischargeH (< 12 g/dL) | 1.28 | (1.19–1.38) | < 0.001 |
Low sodium level at dischargeH (< 13 mEq/L) | 1.26 | (1.15–1.38) | < 0.001 |
Model Performance | (top 10%) | (top 20%) | |
PPV | 43.0 (40.0–46.0) | 36.1 (34.1–38.1) | |
Sensitivity | 21.1 (19.4–22.9) | 37.5 (35.4–39.6) | |
Specificity | 92.9 (92.4–93.5) | 84.5 (83.7–85.3) | |
C-stat (validation cohort, n = 10,557) | 0.68 (95% CI: 0.67–0.70) |