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Table 2 Prediction of 30-day readmission based on PREADM-H model variables (Derivation cohort, N = 24,599)

From: Identifying patients at highest-risk: the best timing to apply a readmission predictive model

Variables OR (95% CI) P value
Chronic condition
 CHFP 1.16 (1.07–1.25) < 0.001
 COPDP 1.19 (1.10–1.29) < 0.001
 CRFP 1.18 (1.09–1.27) < 0.001
 MalignancyP 1.02 (0.93–1.13) 0.658
 ArrhythmiaP 1.03 (0.96–1.11) 0.446
 DisabilityP 1.30 (1.21–1.40) < 0.001
Oncology (treatment phase)H 1.13 (1.00–1.26) 0.041
 Body mass indexP 0.99 (0.98–0.99) < 0.001
 No. hospital admissions in the past yearP 1.13 (1.10–1.15) < 0.001
 No. primary care and specialist visits in the past yearP 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.522
 Residing in hospital’s catchment areaP 0.65–1.62   0.06–1.00
 No. days from last hospitalizationPH 1.00 (1.00–1.00) < 0.001
 Index admission LOSH > =5 d 1.26 (1.18–1.35) < 0.001
Procedure (any ICD-9 codes) during hospital stayH 0.84 (0.71–0.98) 0.026
 Index admission typeH: urgent 2.09 (1.65–2.66) < 0.001
 Low hemoglobin level at dischargeH (< 12 g/dL) 1.28 (1.19–1.38) < 0.001
 Low sodium level at dischargeH (< 13 mEq/L) 1.26 (1.15–1.38) < 0.001
 Model Performance (top 10%) (top 20%)  
 PPV 43.0 (40.0–46.0) 36.1 (34.1–38.1)  
 Sensitivity 21.1 (19.4–22.9) 37.5 (35.4–39.6)  
 Specificity 92.9 (92.4–93.5) 84.5 (83.7–85.3)  
 C-stat (validation cohort, n = 10,557) 0.68 (95% CI: 0.67–0.70)
  1. Abbreviations OR Odds ratio, CI Confidence interval, CHF Congestive heart failure, COPD Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CRF Chronic renal failure, LOS Length of stay, C-stat Model’s discrimination and calibration, PPV Positive predictive value
  2. P: variables from PREADM model
  3. H: variables from HOSPITAL model
  4. PH: variables from PREADM-H model
  5. PREADM-H: Preadmission Readmission Detection Model + Hospital model