Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 1 Models’ discriminative performance

From: Predicting 7-day, 30-day and 60-day all-cause unplanned readmission: a case study of a Sydney hospital

  7-day Readmission 30-day Readmission 60-day Readmission
10-fold CV derivation set average
(95% CI)
validation set 10-fold CV derivation set average
(95% CI)
validation set 10-fold CV derivation set average
(95% CI)
validation set
Gradient Tree Boosting Logistic Regression (selected variables) Risk Score: RETURN7 Gradient Tree Boosting Logistic Regression (selected variables) Risk Score: RETURN30 Gradient Tree Boosting Logistic Regression (selected variables) Risk Score: RETURN60
AUC 0.71 (0.70–0.72) 0.68 (0.67–0.69) 0.71 0.74 (0.73–0.75) 0.72 (0.71–0.73) 0.71 0.76 (0.75–0.76) 0.74 (0.73–0.75) 0.74
SEN (%) 54.7 (52.8–56.6) 71.5 (66.9–76.1) 61.5 (Cut-off = 12) 60.3 (59.0–61.5) 59.0 (56.1–61.9) 52.9 (Cut-off = 12) 63.9 (62.4–65.4) 66.1 (63.0–69.3) 70.0 (Cut-off = 11)
SPE (%) 73.0 (71.9–74.1) 56.5 (51.9–61.0) 69.2 (Cut-off = 12) 73.7 (73.3–74.2) 73.3 (70.7–76.0) 77.4 (Cut-off = 12) 73.4 (72.6–74.2) 69.8 (66.5–73.1) 65.1 (Cut-off = 11)
PPV (%) 7.5 (0.7–0.8) 7.3 (6.7–7.9) 6.9 (Cut-off = 12) 16.0 (15.4–16.5) 16.0 (15.4–16.5) 14.8 (Cut-off = 12) 21.6 (20.9–22.4) 21.4 (20.6–22.2) 18.5 (Cut-off = 11)
  1. AUC Area Under the Receiver operating Curve, SEN Sensitivity, SPE Specificity, PPV Positive Predictive Value, Cut-off Score cut-off for which SEN, SPE and PPV are calculated