| 7-day Readmission | 30-day Readmission | 60-day Readmission | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-fold CV derivation set average (95% CI) | validation set | 10-fold CV derivation set average (95% CI) | validation set | 10-fold CV derivation set average (95% CI) | validation set | ||||
Gradient Tree Boosting | Logistic Regression (selected variables) | Risk Score: RETURN7 | Gradient Tree Boosting | Logistic Regression (selected variables) | Risk Score: RETURN30 | Gradient Tree Boosting | Logistic Regression (selected variables) | Risk Score: RETURN60 | |
AUC | 0.71 (0.70–0.72) | 0.68 (0.67–0.69) | 0.71 | 0.74 (0.73–0.75) | 0.72 (0.71–0.73) | 0.71 | 0.76 (0.75–0.76) | 0.74 (0.73–0.75) | 0.74 |
SEN (%) | 54.7 (52.8–56.6) | 71.5 (66.9–76.1) | 61.5 (Cut-off = 12) | 60.3 (59.0–61.5) | 59.0 (56.1–61.9) | 52.9 (Cut-off = 12) | 63.9 (62.4–65.4) | 66.1 (63.0–69.3) | 70.0 (Cut-off = 11) |
SPE (%) | 73.0 (71.9–74.1) | 56.5 (51.9–61.0) | 69.2 (Cut-off = 12) | 73.7 (73.3–74.2) | 73.3 (70.7–76.0) | 77.4 (Cut-off = 12) | 73.4 (72.6–74.2) | 69.8 (66.5–73.1) | 65.1 (Cut-off = 11) |
PPV (%) | 7.5 (0.7–0.8) | 7.3 (6.7–7.9) | 6.9 (Cut-off = 12) | 16.0 (15.4–16.5) | 16.0 (15.4–16.5) | 14.8 (Cut-off = 12) | 21.6 (20.9–22.4) | 21.4 (20.6–22.2) | 18.5 (Cut-off = 11) |