Table 1 Results from prediction of influenza incidence in each state for the three prediction years 2010–2013 using the method of analogues with adaptable parameters l and v as well as the same measures for the naïve prediction (average of the date’s incidence for the previous 4 years)
State | Analogue: % RMS Error in Peak Height: | Analogue: % RMS Error in Area under the Incidence Curve | Correlation Coefficient: Incidence to Prediction | Naïve: % RMS Error in Peak Height | Naïve: % RMS Error in Area under the Incidence Curve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 16.7 | 17.2 | 0.74 | 25.3 | 16.6 |
Alaska | 12.7 | 20.0 | 0.41 | 38.0 | 20.3 |
Arkansas | 14.6 | 17.4 | 0.72 | 29.6 | 14.2 |
Arizona | 7.6 | 23.2 | 0.76 | 20.9 | 16.3 |
California | 17.8 | 26.2 | 0.68 | 19.8 | 12.5 |
Colorado | 3.7 | 16.0 | 0.80 | 19.9 | 11.5 |
Connecticut | 17.2 | 8.6 | 0.62 | 22.3 | 5.6 |
Delaware | 17.4 | 48.6 | 0.58 | 21.3 | 5.9 |
Florida | 9.5 | 16.4 | 0.72 | 20.0 | 3.3 |
Georgia | 8.3 | 13.3 | 0.79 | 25.8 | 9.6 |
Hawaii | 11.1 | 9.6 | 0.64 | 28.1 | 27.2 |
Illinois | 13.5 | 12.3 | 0.48 | 50.8 | 27.8 |
Kansas | 8.2 | 17.7 | 0.63 | 42.7 | 11.2 |
Kentucky | 12.5 | 21.5 | 0.74 | 26.5 | 12.5 |
Louisiana | 10.3 | 11.6 | 0.68 | 23.8 | 9.1 |
Maryland | 18.3 | 23.2 | 0.61 | 15.5 | 20.9 |
Massachusetts | 7.6 | 20.7 | 0.66 | 27.7 | 7.1 |
Mississippi | 10.5 | 19.0 | 0.71 | 30.8 | 4.6 |
Missouri | 13.3 | 18.3 | 0.80 | 26.7 | 17.9 |
Montana | 9.8 | 23.8 | 0.74 | 13.9 | 8.2 |
Nebraska | 18.4 | 12.7 | 0.59 | 37.7 | 12.4 |
Nevada | 4.2 | 5.8 | 0.77 | 20.3 | 9.4 |
New Hampshire | 26.7 | 23.2 | 0.56 | 20.9 | 13.7 |
New Jersey | 13.0 | 37.6 | 0.56 | 13.7 | 12.7 |
New Mexico | 14.4 | 17.8 | 0.76 | 26.2 | 1.2 |
New York | 28.8 | 6.4 | 0.76 | 25.1 | 15.7 |
North Carolina | 19.8 | 50.0 | 0.78 | 22.6 | 11.4 |
North Dakota | 19.0 | 15.1 | 0.57 | 19.7 | 11.3 |
Ohio | 7.4 | 23.8 | 0.76 | 28.5 | 4.8 |
Oklahoma | 8.2 | 22.7 | 0.53 | 28.9 | 11.2 |
Pennsylvania | 12.4 | 11.7 | 0.79 | 23.7 | 2.8 |
Rhode Island | 31.5 | 22.3 | 0.62 | 31.6 | 32.0 |
South Carolina | 18.1 | 21.4 | 0.71 | 31.0 | 17.7 |
South Dakota | 6.7 | 13.3 | 0.71 | 20.2 | 17.3 |
Tennessee | 11.2 | 15.3 | 0.82 | 20.4 | 13.2 |
Texas | 19.4 | 14.6 | 0.69 | 26.3 | 29.7 |
Utah | 20.1 | 10.4 | 0.64 | 24.5 | 17.8 |
Virginia | 35.4 | 17.5 | 0.66 | 23.6 | 12.6 |
Washington | 24.1 | 17.1 | 0.70 | 21.6 | 18.2 |
Wyoming | 13.2 | 24.9 | 0.65 | 18.4 | 17.8 |
Average over All States | 14.8 | 19.2 | 0.68 | 25.4 | 13.7 |