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Table 5 Estimates of key quantities characterizing the performance of the proposed two test workflow when 1-year or 3-year occurrences of hazardous events (HE) and clinical restenosis are taken into account

From: Stratification of coronary artery disease patients for revascularization procedure based on estimating adverse effects

Estimated quantity

1- year

3- years

Mean

95% CI

Mean

95% CI

\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{sBMS}\right) \)

5.6

3.4 – 9.8

6.4

3.1 – 13.0

\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{sDES}\right) \)

85.5

81.9 – 87.6

84.1

78.4 – 87.2

\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{sCABG}\right) \)

8.9

8.2 – 9.2

9.5

8.5 – 10.4

\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{Restenosis}\left|\mathrm{sBMS}\right.\right) \)

0.0

0.0 – 0.0

0.0

0.0 – 0.0

\( \tilde{P}\left(\mathrm{Restenosis}\left|\mathrm{sDES}\right.\right) \)

2.9

1.9 – 3.4

8.2

7.6 – 9.0

\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{Restenosis}\right) \)

2.7

1.8 – 3.1

7.1

6.4 – 7.9

\( \tilde{P}\left(\mathrm{Hazard}\left|\mathrm{sBMS}\right.\right) \)

7.2

0.0 – 16.1

9.9

0.0 – 21.4

\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{Hazard}\left|\mathrm{sDES}\right.\right) \)

3.2

2.0 – 3.5

7.4

5.6 – 8.9

\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{Hazard}\right) \)

3.9

2.7 – 4.6

7.6

6.2 – 8.9

Baseline estimate for P(Adverse effect)

9.7

8.4 – 10.3

19.7

18.2 – 20.7

Proposed estimate for P(Adverse effect)

6.5

5.0 – 7.6

14.7

13.1 – 16.1

ΔP(Adverse effect)

3.2

2.7 – 3.8

4.9

4.1 – 6.2

  1. The acronyms sBMS, sDES and sCABG denote that the proposed model suggested treatment with bare-metal stents, drug-eluting stents or coronary artery bypass grafting, respectively. Baseline refers to predominant treatment with drug-eluting stents as described in section “Baseline Effectiveness and Costs”.