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Table 4 Estimates of key quantities characterizing the performance of the proposed two test workflow when 1-year or 3-year occurrences of hazardous events (HE) are taken into account along with 6-month angiographic restenosis results

From: Stratification of coronary artery disease patients for revascularization procedure based on estimating adverse effects

Estimated quantity 1- year HE 3- years HE
Mean 95% CI Mean 95% CI
\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{sBMS}\right) \) 9.7 3.6 – 18.0 5.0 2.6 – 9.5
\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{sDES}\right) \) 81.8 74.3 – 87.5 85.3 81.4 – 87.7
\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{sCABG}\right) \) 8.5 7.5 – 9.0 9.6 7.8 – 10.6
\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{Restenosis}\left|\mathrm{sBMS}\right.\right) \) 0.1 0.0 – 0.0 0.0 0.0 – 0.0
\( \tilde{P}\left(\mathrm{Restenosis}\left|\mathrm{sDES}\right.\right) \) 7.6 6.7 – 7.9 7.0 6.1 – 7.5
\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{Restenosis}\right) \) 6.4 5.5 – 6.9 6.2 5.3 – 6.6
\( \tilde{P}\left(\mathrm{Hazard}\left|\mathrm{sBMS}\right.\right) \) 0.0 0.0 – 0.0 1.5 0.0 – 16.7
\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{Hazard}\left|\mathrm{sDES}\right.\right) \) 3.2 2.1 – 3.5 8.2 7.2 – 9.5
\( \widehat{P}\left(\mathrm{Hazard}\right) \) 3.3 2.5 – 3.8 7.9 6.9 – 9.5
Baseline estimate for P(Adverse effect) 14.1 12.6 – 14.5 18.8 17.6 – 19.6
Proposed estimate for P(Adverse effect) 9.7 8.3 – 10.6 14.1 12.4 – 15.6
ΔP(Adverse effect) 4.4 3.5 – 5.4 4.7 3.4 – 5.5
  1. The acronyms sBMS, sDES and sCABG denote that the proposed model suggested treatment with bare-metal stents, drug-eluting stents or coronary artery bypass grafting, respectively. Baseline refers to predominant treatment with drug-eluting stents as described in section “Baseline Effectiveness and Costs”.