Skip to main content

Table 3 Declared start of ILI epidemic in 2010 for each region, under various decision rules

From: A Bayesian spatio–temporal approach for real–time detection of disease outbreaks: a case study

Decision rule

Declared start of epidemic in region

DaysN

Thresholdϖ

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1

.2

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

1

.5

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

1

.8

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

2

.2

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

2

.5

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

2

.8

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

3

.2

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

3

.5

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/22

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

3

.8

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

8/23

8/22

8/23

8/23

  1. The epidemic is declared when P(δ(t) = 1Y 1:t ) exceeds the threshold ϖ for N consecutive days.