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Table 3 Declared start of ILI epidemic in 2010 for each region, under various decision rules

From: A Bayesian spatio–temporal approach for real–time detection of disease outbreaks: a case study

Decision rule Declared start of epidemic in region
DaysN Thresholdϖ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 .2 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22
1 .5 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23
1 .8 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23
2 .2 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22
2 .5 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23
2 .8 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23
3 .2 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22
3 .5 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/22 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23
3 .8 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23 8/23 8/22 8/23 8/23
  1. The epidemic is declared when P(δ(t) = 1Y 1:t ) exceeds the threshold ϖ for N consecutive days.