Table 1 Declared start of ILI epidemic in 2008 for each region, under various decision rules
From: A Bayesian spatio–temporal approach for real–time detection of disease outbreaks: a case study
Decision rule | Declared start of epidemic in region | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DaysN | Thresholdϖ | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
1 | .2 | 1/24 | 1/24 | 1/21 | 1/21 | 1/21* | 1/21 | 1/21 | 1/21 | 1/21 | 1/27 | 1/27 |
1 | .5 | 2/02 | 1/31 | 1/27 | 1/28 | 1/21* | 1/21 | 1/29 | 1/28 | 1/27 | 1/28 | 1/28 |
1 | .8 | 2/02 | 2/02 | 1/27 | 1/29 | 1/21* | 1/21 | 1/30 | 1/29 | 1/27 | 1/29 | 1/29 |
2 | .2 | 1/29 | 1/29 | 1/26 | 1/27 | 1/26 | 1/21 | 1/28 | 1/27 | 1/27 | 1/27 | 1/27 |
2 | .5 | 2/02 | 1/31 | 1/27 | 1/28 | 1/27 | 1/24 | 1/29 | 1/28 | 1/27 | 1/28 | 1/28 |
2 | .8 | 2/02 | 2/02 | 1/27 | 1/29 | 1/27 | 1/25 | 2/02 | 1/29 | 1/27 | 2/02 | 1/29 |
3 | .2 | 1/29 | 1/29 | 1/26 | 1/27 | 1/26 | 1/24 | 1/28 | 1/27 | 1/27 | 1/27 | 1/27 |
3 | .5 | 2/02 | 1/31 | 1/27 | 1/28 | 1/27 | 1/24 | 1/29 | 1/28 | 1/27 | 1/28 | 1/28 |
3 | .8 | 2/02 | 2/02 | 1/27 | 1/29 | 1/27 | 1/25 | 2/02 | 1/29 | 1/27 | 2/02 | 2/02 |