Skip to main content

Table 1 Declared start of ILI epidemic in 2008 for each region, under various decision rules

From: A Bayesian spatio–temporal approach for real–time detection of disease outbreaks: a case study

Decision rule Declared start of epidemic in region
DaysN Thresholdϖ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 .2 1/24 1/24 1/21 1/21 1/21* 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/21 1/27 1/27
1 .5 2/02 1/31 1/27 1/28 1/21* 1/21 1/29 1/28 1/27 1/28 1/28
1 .8 2/02 2/02 1/27 1/29 1/21* 1/21 1/30 1/29 1/27 1/29 1/29
2 .2 1/29 1/29 1/26 1/27 1/26 1/21 1/28 1/27 1/27 1/27 1/27
2 .5 2/02 1/31 1/27 1/28 1/27 1/24 1/29 1/28 1/27 1/28 1/28
2 .8 2/02 2/02 1/27 1/29 1/27 1/25 2/02 1/29 1/27 2/02 1/29
3 .2 1/29 1/29 1/26 1/27 1/26 1/24 1/28 1/27 1/27 1/27 1/27
3 .5 2/02 1/31 1/27 1/28 1/27 1/24 1/29 1/28 1/27 1/28 1/28
3 .8 2/02 2/02 1/27 1/29 1/27 1/25 2/02 1/29 1/27 2/02 2/02
  1. The epidemic is declared when P(δ(t) = 1Y 1:t ) exceeds the threshold ϖ for N consecutive days. “*” represents a case of potential false alarm.