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Table 3 Algorithm performance statistics for larger more clustered outbreaks (S4:n = 93) for false alarm (FA) rates approximating 0.05 and 0.01.

From: Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

Algorithm mean
FA rate
mean sensitivity mean (median) timeliness mean (median) adjusted timeliness
EARS C1 0.049 55.9 6.2 (2.5) 15.8 (18)
EARS C2 0.048 92.5 5.0 (4) 6.7 (4)
EARS C3 0.050 93.5 2.8 (0) 4.4 (1)
NBC 7 0.050 97.8 2.7 (1) 3.3 (1)
NBC 14 0.050 98.9 2.6 (1) 2.9 (1)
NBC 28 0.055 97.8 3.5 (1) 4.0 (1)
HMM 7 0.049 97.8 4.2 (3) 4.7 (3)
HMM 14 0.049 98.9 4.3 (3) 4.6 (3)
HMM 28 0.049 100 4.7 (3) 4.7 (3)
EARS C1 0.0004 18.3 7.8 (9) 24.3 (28)
EARS C2 0.009 20.4 8.4 (5) 24.0 (28)
EARS C3 0.009 41.9 7.1 (4) 19.2 (28)
NBC 7 0.009 76.3 7.2 (5) 12.1 (10)
NBC 14 0.010 82.8 6.6 (5) 10.3 (7)
NBC 28 0.013 89.2 7.2 (6) 9.4 (7)
HMM 7 0.010 94.6 6.6 (5.5) 7.7 (6)
HMM 14 0.008 97.8 4.9 (4) 5.4 (4)
HMM 28 0.010 100 5.0 (4) 5.0 (4)