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Table 1 Algorithm area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Combined AUC (CAUC) performance statistics for false alarm rates between 0 and 0.1 by simulation scenarios S1–S4.

From: Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

  mean (median) AUC0–0.1 × 10-3 mean (median) CAUC0–0.1 × 10-3
Algorithm S1 S2 S3 S4 S1 S2 S3 S4
EARS C1 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.04 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0)
EARS C2 0.3 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0) 0.2 (0.0) 0.2 (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.2 (0.0)
EARS C3 0.3 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0) 0.3 (0.0) 0.4 (0.0) 0.2 (0.0) 0.2 (0.0) 0.1 (0.0) 0.2 (0.0)
NBC 7 3.6 (0.0) 3.4 (0.0) 5.2 (8.1) 5.6 (8.2) 1.5 (0.0) 1.6 (0.0) 1.9 (0.0) 2.1 (0.0)
NBC 14 5.1 (8.1) 4.8 (8.1) 6.0 (8.8) 6.3 (8.7) 2.6 (0.0) 2.5 (0.0) 2.4 (0.0) 2.6 (0.0)
NBC 28 4.7 (4.5) 4.7 (4.5) 2.9 (0.0) 3.1 (0.0) 2.2 (0.0) 2.5 (0.0) 1.4 (0.0) 1.7 (0.0)
HMM 7 6.0 (7.7) 5.8 (7.7) 7.6 (8.3) 7.7 (8.3) 2.3 (0.0) 2.0 (0.0) 3.2 (1.8) 2.9 (1.8)
HMM 14 7.5 (8.3) 8.1 (8.4) 7.9 (8.7) 8.3 (8.8) 3.5 (3.5) 3.9 (4.1) 3.6 (3.4) 4.1 (4.4)
HMM 28 5.2 (8.9) 6.2 (9.1) 4.3 (0.0) 4.9 (8.8) 2.4 (0.0) 3.2 (0.0) 2.1 (0.0) 2.5 (0.0)
  1. ROC: receiver operating characteristic
  2. Simulation scenarios S1:smaller less clustered; S2:smaller more clustered; S3:larger less clustered; S4:larger more clustered.