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Figure 1 | BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Figure 1

From: How does age affect baseline screening mammography performance measures? A decision model

Figure 1

Decision model for baseline screening mammography used to predict primary and secondary performance measures. An asymptomatic woman between ages 35 and 65 getting a baseline mammogram faces four possible outcomes. These outcomes depend on her health status (cancer or healthy) and the initial radiologist reading (positive or negative). The corresponding inputs for the circular probability nodes are population-based values of age-dependent cancer prevalence and radiologist accuracy. There is a wide range of radiologist performance for sensitivity and specificity. The probability of a true-positive outcome is equivalent to the cancer detection rate, a screening benefit. The false-positive outcome involves healthy women and is a screening harm. Besides additional diagnostic imaging, this outcome may result in further diagnostic evaluation and intervention. The probability values for the third and fourth branch points (BiR12initial, etc.) use population-based data.

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