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Table 4 Summary performance statistics for false alarm rates approximating 0.005 for the negative binomial cusum with an out of control state defined as 3 standard deviations greater than the mean

From: Applying cusum-based methods for the detection of outbreaks of Ross River virus disease in Western Australia

Algorithm false alarm rate mean sensitivity Day 1 sensitivity Day 2 sensitivity Days 1–7 sensitivity CARL median timeliness
NBC 7-day 0.0049 0.80 0.2 0.07 0.33 1.6 13.0
NBC 14-day 0.0049 0.97 0.2 0.07 0.33 1.6 12.0
NBC 28-day 0.0049 1.00 0.27 0.07 0.60 3.0 6.0
NBC 56-day 0.0038 1.00 0.27 0.07 0.40 1.5 12.0
  1. Test threshold that produced a false alarm rate ≤ 0.00
  2. Detection on the first outbreak day is equivalent to a timeliness of 0 days
  3. CARL: Conditional Average Run Length – conditional on the detection of the outbreak during the first 7 days
  4. NBC: Negative binomial cusum