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Table 2 Algorithm summary performance statistics for false alarm rates approximating 0.001

From: Applying cusum-based methods for the detection of outbreaks of Ross River virus disease in Western Australia

Algorithm false alarm rate median (mean) sensitivity Day 1 sensitivity Day 2 sensitivity Days 1–7 sensitivity CARL median (mean) timeliness median (mean) adjusted timeliness
EARS C1 0.0008 0 (0.27) 0.13 0 0.13 1.0 36.5 (49.0) 123 (113.1)
EARS C2 0.0008 0 (0.40) 0.13 0 0.13 1.0 44.5 (52.7) 90 (96.0)
EARS C3 0.0008 0 (0.47) 0.13 0 0.13 1.0 51.0 (52.4) 73 (93.4)
NBC 7-day 0.0008 1 (0.80) 0.13 0.07 0.27 1.8 19.5 (32.3) 21 (31.1)
NBC 14-day 0.0008 1 (0.80) 0.07 0 0.13 2.0 33.5 (39.0) 32 (36.5)
NBC 28-day 0.0008 1 (0.93) 0.07 0 0.2 3.0 16.5 (26.3) 18 (26.8)
NBC 56-day 0.0008 1 (0.80) 0 0 0.13 5.0 19.0 (31.0) 20 (30.1)
p-value¥ - <0.0001 - - - - 0.91 0.0003
  1. Test threshold that produced a false alarm rate ≤ 0.001
  2. Detection on the first outbreak day is equivalent to a timeliness of 0 days
  3. ¥Friedman rank sum test
  4. CARL: Conditional Average Run Length – conditional on the detection of the outbreak during the first 7 days
  5. EARS: Early Aberration Reporting System
  6. NBC: Negative binomial cusum with an out of control state defined as 2 standard deviations greater than the mean