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Table 3 Comparison between actual numbers of PCIs and forecast numbers (1995–1999) based on the standard Mean and Linear extrapolation methods as well as selected modifications of these

From: Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

Sex Age Group Actual PCI Forecast under mean method Forecast under modified mean method (Model 1) Forecast under further modified mean method (Model 2) Forecast under final modified mean method (Model 5) Forecast under linear method Forecast under modified linear method (Model 3) Forecast under further modified linear method (Model 4)
Male 35–39 233 204 210 190 236 251 243 241
Male 40–44 412 423 424 401 492 554 527 526
Male 45–49 730 697 696 659 817 934 889 893
Male 50–54 788 800 807 754 917 1032 1008 1014
Male 55–59 909 819 824 779 950 1084 1013 1014
Male 60–64 888 762 767 717 880 1069 994 994
Male 65–69 878 662 665 632 769 1064 988 991
Male 70–74 716 414 417 393 477 745 694 698
Male 75–79 260 153 153 146 177 261 259 262
Male All 5814 4934 4963 4671 5715 6994 6615 6633
Female 35–39 24 19 21 20 23 26 26 25
Female 40–44 81 61 63 64 69 58 56 56
Female 45–49 119 134 136 138 148 135 129 128
Female 50–54 189 178 185 213 201 215 199 199
Female 55–59 250 221 230 222 249 285 262 260
Female 60–64 338 279 289 281 315 341 324 319
Female 65–69 381 326 339 329 364 436 411 414
Female 70–74 348 274 284 258 293 397 377 375
Female 75–79 197 129 136 122 134 219 205 205
Female All 1927 1621 1683 1647 1796 2112 1989 1981
Total   7741 6555 6646 6318 7511 9106 8604 8614
% change from actual    -15.3 -14.1 -18.4 -3.0 17.6 11.1 11.3
GOF    494.11 455.09 643.38 265.37 265.03 155.37 159.38