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Table 2 Comparison between actual numbers of CABGs and forecast numbers (1995–1999) based on the standard Mean and Linear extrapolation methods as well as selected modifications of these methods

From: Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

Sex

Age Group

Actual

Forecast under mean method

Forecast under modified mean method (Model 1)

Forecast under further modified mean method (Model 2)

Forecast under final modified mean method (Model 5)

Forecast under linear method

Forecast under modified linear method (Model 3)

Forecast under further modified linear method (Model 4)

Male

35–39

90

113

115

110

98

127

124

122

Male

40–44

206

271

278

265

239

271

266

262

Male

45–49

394

535

533

528

470

512

512

495

Male

50–54

601

733

730

719

637

697

696

678

Male

55–59

759

892

892

883

778

862

862

844

Male

60–64

829

1035

1028

1025

896

1009

1013

1007

Male

65–69

950

1075

1066

1065

930

1088

1078

1080

Male

70–74

678

771

773

769

667

810

808

810

Male

75–79

245

309

306

307

264

361

359

360

Male

All

4752

5734

5721

5671

4979

5737

5718

5658

Female

35–39

22

16

18

15

15

14

15

15

Female

40–44

40

38

41

38

36

37

40

38

Female

45–49

49

82

85

72

76

70

70

69

Female

50–54

108

137

143

125

128

126

127

123

Female

55–59

152

216

224

213

200

200

199

197

Female

60–64

262

305

324

302

281

242

243

239

Female

65–69

319

392

417

387

362

283

284

276

Female

70–74

302

341

363

336

313

264

267

263

Female

75–79

151

161

169

161

145

145

144

142

Female

All

1405

1688

1784

1649

1556

1381

1389

1362

Total

 

6157

7422

7505

7320

6535

7118

7107

6744

% change from actual

  

20.5

21.9

18.9

6.1

15.6

15.4

9.5

GOF

  

246.52

272.87

212.55

61.96

224.65

215.30

200.18