Sex | Age Group | Actual | Forecast under mean method | Forecast under modified mean method (Model 1) | Forecast under further modified mean method (Model 2) | Forecast under final modified mean method (Model 5) | Forecast under linear method | Forecast under modified linear method (Model 3) | Forecast under further modified linear method (Model 4) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male | 35–39 | 90 | 113 | 115 | 110 | 98 | 127 | 124 | 122 |
Male | 40–44 | 206 | 271 | 278 | 265 | 239 | 271 | 266 | 262 |
Male | 45–49 | 394 | 535 | 533 | 528 | 470 | 512 | 512 | 495 |
Male | 50–54 | 601 | 733 | 730 | 719 | 637 | 697 | 696 | 678 |
Male | 55–59 | 759 | 892 | 892 | 883 | 778 | 862 | 862 | 844 |
Male | 60–64 | 829 | 1035 | 1028 | 1025 | 896 | 1009 | 1013 | 1007 |
Male | 65–69 | 950 | 1075 | 1066 | 1065 | 930 | 1088 | 1078 | 1080 |
Male | 70–74 | 678 | 771 | 773 | 769 | 667 | 810 | 808 | 810 |
Male | 75–79 | 245 | 309 | 306 | 307 | 264 | 361 | 359 | 360 |
Male | All | 4752 | 5734 | 5721 | 5671 | 4979 | 5737 | 5718 | 5658 |
Female | 35–39 | 22 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
Female | 40–44 | 40 | 38 | 41 | 38 | 36 | 37 | 40 | 38 |
Female | 45–49 | 49 | 82 | 85 | 72 | 76 | 70 | 70 | 69 |
Female | 50–54 | 108 | 137 | 143 | 125 | 128 | 126 | 127 | 123 |
Female | 55–59 | 152 | 216 | 224 | 213 | 200 | 200 | 199 | 197 |
Female | 60–64 | 262 | 305 | 324 | 302 | 281 | 242 | 243 | 239 |
Female | 65–69 | 319 | 392 | 417 | 387 | 362 | 283 | 284 | 276 |
Female | 70–74 | 302 | 341 | 363 | 336 | 313 | 264 | 267 | 263 |
Female | 75–79 | 151 | 161 | 169 | 161 | 145 | 145 | 144 | 142 |
Female | All | 1405 | 1688 | 1784 | 1649 | 1556 | 1381 | 1389 | 1362 |
Total | 6157 | 7422 | 7505 | 7320 | 6535 | 7118 | 7107 | 6744 | |
% change from actual | 20.5 | 21.9 | 18.9 | 6.1 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 9.5 | ||
GOF | 246.52 | 272.87 | 212.55 | 61.96 | 224.65 | 215.30 | 200.18 |