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Table 2 Comparison between actual numbers of CABGs and forecast numbers (1995–1999) based on the standard Mean and Linear extrapolation methods as well as selected modifications of these methods

From: Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

Sex Age Group Actual Forecast under mean method Forecast under modified mean method (Model 1) Forecast under further modified mean method (Model 2) Forecast under final modified mean method (Model 5) Forecast under linear method Forecast under modified linear method (Model 3) Forecast under further modified linear method (Model 4)
Male 35–39 90 113 115 110 98 127 124 122
Male 40–44 206 271 278 265 239 271 266 262
Male 45–49 394 535 533 528 470 512 512 495
Male 50–54 601 733 730 719 637 697 696 678
Male 55–59 759 892 892 883 778 862 862 844
Male 60–64 829 1035 1028 1025 896 1009 1013 1007
Male 65–69 950 1075 1066 1065 930 1088 1078 1080
Male 70–74 678 771 773 769 667 810 808 810
Male 75–79 245 309 306 307 264 361 359 360
Male All 4752 5734 5721 5671 4979 5737 5718 5658
Female 35–39 22 16 18 15 15 14 15 15
Female 40–44 40 38 41 38 36 37 40 38
Female 45–49 49 82 85 72 76 70 70 69
Female 50–54 108 137 143 125 128 126 127 123
Female 55–59 152 216 224 213 200 200 199 197
Female 60–64 262 305 324 302 281 242 243 239
Female 65–69 319 392 417 387 362 283 284 276
Female 70–74 302 341 363 336 313 264 267 263
Female 75–79 151 161 169 161 145 145 144 142
Female All 1405 1688 1784 1649 1556 1381 1389 1362
Total   6157 7422 7505 7320 6535 7118 7107 6744
% change from actual    20.5 21.9 18.9 6.1 15.6 15.4 9.5
GOF    246.52 272.87 212.55 61.96 224.65 215.30 200.18