Table 2 Mean percent of outbreak signals detected by six aberration detection algorithms, tested on five outbreak distributions, at an alert rate of 0.01
From: A simulation study comparing aberration detection algorithms for syndromic surveillance
Distribution: | C1 | C2 | C3 | GLM | EWMA 0.4 | EWMA 0.9 | F value | p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Airborne bioweapon | Mean | 37.4% | 41.5% | 36.5% | 56.5% | 41.6% | 46.9% | 12.85 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI* | 33.5% | 37.5% | 32.4% | 52.4% | 37.5% | 42.7% | |||
Upper CI | 41.2% | 45.4% | 40.7% | 60.5% | 45.8% | 51.1% | |||
Point-source | Mean | 38.1% | 41.7% | 38.0% | 56.5% | 42.4% | 47.5% | 9.49 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 33.9% | 37.3% | 33.5% | 52.1% | 37.7% | 42.8% | |||
Upper CI | 42.3% | 46.2% | 42.6% | 60.9% | 47.0% | 52.1% | |||
Community transmission: close contact | Mean | 32.2% | 37.2% | 34.6% | 53.0% | 40.1% | 43.7% | 12.11 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 28.3% | 33.1% | 30.2% | 48.7% | 35.6% | 39.3% | |||
Upper CI | 36.0% | 41.4% | 38.9% | 57.3% | 44.6% | 48.1% | |||
Community transmission: airborne | Mean | 32.1% | 37.5% | 34.8% | 52.8% | 41.2% | 44.1% | 11.57 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 28.3% | 33.4% | 30.4% | 48.4% | 36.7% | 39.6% | |||
Upper CI | 36.0% | 41.7% | 39.2% | 57.2% | 45.8% | 48.6% | |||
Community transmission: multi-modal | Mean | 28.4% | 37.4% | 34.4% | 52.6% | 40.9% | 43.9% | 15.05 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 25.1% | 33.2% | 30.1% | 48.2% | 36.3% | 39.4% | |||
Upper CI | 31.7% | 41.5% | 38.8% | 57.0% | 45.5% | 48.4% | |||
F value | 4.39 | 1.22 | 0.05 | 0.86 | 0.13 | 0.65 | |||
p-value | 0.0016 | 0.30 | 0.74 | 0.4881 | 0.97 | 0.63 | |||