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Table 2 Retrospective evaluation of the excess P&I mortality in France for 1968–1999, using nine periodic regression models. The components included in each model are indicated by a*. #Model options: exclusion of the top 15% percentile from the training period; forecast interval: 95%

From: Online detection and quantification of epidemics

  Trend Periodicity   
Model# t t2 T3 1 year 6 months 3 months AIC Cumulated excess mortality over the whole period
M11 *    *    4 340 88 442
M12 *    * *   4 343 87 260
M13 *    * * * 4 339 88 266
M21 * *   *    4 225 85 083
M22 * *   * *   4 226 83 245
M23 * *   * * * 4 216 83 505
M31 * * * *    4 188 85 175
M32 * * * * *   4 188 83 337
M33 * * * * * * 4 175 82 465