Table 2 Retrospective evaluation of the excess P&I mortality in France for 1968–1999, using nine periodic regression models. The components included in each model are indicated by a*. ^#Model options: exclusion of the top 15% percentile from the training period; forecast interval: 95%

M11

*

*

4 340

88 442

M12

*

*

*

4 343

87 260

M13

*

*

*

*

4 339

88 266

M21

*

*

*

4 225

85 083

M22

*

*

*

*

4 226

83 245

M23

*

*

*

*

*

4 216

83 505

M31

*

*

*

*

4 188

85 175

M32

*

*

*

*

*

4 188

83 337

M33

*

*

*

*

*

*

4 175

82 465