Table 7 Sensitivity analysis for uncertainties in systolic BP and TC and their measurement. The three hypothetical BPs given are adjusted by +/- 11% and the TCs by +/- 15%. A 'normal' BP of 135 mmHg systolic is assumed for the TC analysis and a 'normal' cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/l is taken for the BP analysis. Values for the predicted survival at 20 years are given.
| Â | Â | Systolic BP mmHg (95% CI) | TC mmol/l (95% CI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  | 120 (107 – 133) | 140 (125 – 155) | 160 (142 – 178) | 4.0 (3.4 – 4.6) | 6.0 (5.1 – 6.9) | 8.0 (6.8 – 9.2) |
35 year old man | S | 94.2 – 92.9 | 93.4 – 90.9 | 92.2 – 88.0 | 94.0 – 93.3 | 93.0 – 91.5 | 91.6 – 89.0 |
|  | NS | 96.0 – 95.5 | 95.7 – 94.6 | 95.2 – 93.3 | 95.8 – 95.6 | 95.5 – 94.9 | 95.0 – 93.9 |
35 year-old woman | S | 95.3 – 95.3 | 95.3 – 95.2 | 95.3 – 95.1 | 95.4 – 95.3 | 95.3 – 95.2 | 95.2 – 94.9 |
|  | NS | 96.9 – 96.9 | 96.9 – 96.8 | 96.9 – 96.8 | 96.9 – 96.9 | 96.9 – 96.9 | 96.9 – 96.8 |
50 year old man | S | 73.0 – 68.3 | 69.9 – 63.0 | 66.2 – 56.7 | 72.8 – 70.1 | 68.9 – 64.0 | 64.3 – 57.8 |
|  | NS | 84.9 – 82.4 | 83.3 – 79.2 | 81.2 – 74.8 | 84.7 – 83.4 | 82.8 – 79.9 | 80.1 – 75.5 |
50 year-old woman | S | 79.6 – 79.3 | 79.4 – 78.7 | 79.1 – 77.7 | 79.9 – 79.6 | 79.4 – 78.5 | 78.5 – 76.7 |
|  | NS | 89.1 – 89.0 | 89.0 – 88.8 | 88.9 – 88.5 | 89.2 – 89.1 | 89.0 – 88.7 | 88.7 – 88.0 |
65 year old man | S | 16.8 – 14.7 | 15.4 – 12.7 | 13.9 – 10.6 | 16.8 – 15.5 | 14.9 – 13.1 | 13.2 – 11.2 |
|  | NS | 50.3 – 46.4 | 47.8 – 42.3 | 44.8 – 37.5 | 50.3 – 48.8 | 47.0 – 43.0 | 43.2 – 38.2 |
65 year-old woman | S | 37.1 – 36.7 | 36.9 – 36.0 | 36.5 – 35.1 | 37.7 – 37.2 | 36.9 – 35.6 | 35.7 – 33.7 |
|  | NS | 63.6 – 63.3 | 63.5 – 62.8 | 63.2 – 62.0 | 64.0 – 63.7 | 63.5 – 62.5 | 62.6 – 60.7 |