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Table 7 Sensitivity analysis for uncertainties in systolic BP and TC and their measurement. The three hypothetical BPs given are adjusted by +/- 11% and the TCs by +/- 15%. A 'normal' BP of 135 mmHg systolic is assumed for the TC analysis and a 'normal' cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/l is taken for the BP analysis. Values for the predicted survival at 20 years are given.

From: Description and validation of a Markov model of survival for individuals free of cardiovascular disease that uses Framingham risk factors

   Systolic BP mmHg (95% CI) TC mmol/l (95% CI)
   120 (107 – 133) 140 (125 – 155) 160 (142 – 178) 4.0 (3.4 – 4.6) 6.0 (5.1 – 6.9) 8.0 (6.8 – 9.2)
35 year old man S 94.2 – 92.9 93.4 – 90.9 92.2 – 88.0 94.0 – 93.3 93.0 – 91.5 91.6 – 89.0
  NS 96.0 – 95.5 95.7 – 94.6 95.2 – 93.3 95.8 – 95.6 95.5 – 94.9 95.0 – 93.9
35 year-old woman S 95.3 – 95.3 95.3 – 95.2 95.3 – 95.1 95.4 – 95.3 95.3 – 95.2 95.2 – 94.9
  NS 96.9 – 96.9 96.9 – 96.8 96.9 – 96.8 96.9 – 96.9 96.9 – 96.9 96.9 – 96.8
50 year old man S 73.0 – 68.3 69.9 – 63.0 66.2 – 56.7 72.8 – 70.1 68.9 – 64.0 64.3 – 57.8
  NS 84.9 – 82.4 83.3 – 79.2 81.2 – 74.8 84.7 – 83.4 82.8 – 79.9 80.1 – 75.5
50 year-old woman S 79.6 – 79.3 79.4 – 78.7 79.1 – 77.7 79.9 – 79.6 79.4 – 78.5 78.5 – 76.7
  NS 89.1 – 89.0 89.0 – 88.8 88.9 – 88.5 89.2 – 89.1 89.0 – 88.7 88.7 – 88.0
65 year old man S 16.8 – 14.7 15.4 – 12.7 13.9 – 10.6 16.8 – 15.5 14.9 – 13.1 13.2 – 11.2
  NS 50.3 – 46.4 47.8 – 42.3 44.8 – 37.5 50.3 – 48.8 47.0 – 43.0 43.2 – 38.2
65 year-old woman S 37.1 – 36.7 36.9 – 36.0 36.5 – 35.1 37.7 – 37.2 36.9 – 35.6 35.7 – 33.7
  NS 63.6 – 63.3 63.5 – 62.8 63.2 – 62.0 64.0 – 63.7 63.5 – 62.5 62.6 – 60.7
  1. S = Smoker NS = Non-smoker
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BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

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