Table 4 Estimated probabilities (%) of morbidity and mortality from untreated SNPTB and side effects in treated SNPTB (median and inter quartile range)

India (n = 77) Pakistan (n = 84) Bangladesh (n = 81) All countries (n = 242)
1 Mortality from untreated SNPTB* 70 (65-75) 60 (30-82.5) 60 (40-70) 65 (50-75)
2 Morbidity from untreated SNPTB¶ 5 (5-10) 20 (10-30) 29.5 (20-30) 20 (8-30)
3 Probability of side effects occurring if SNPTB is treated¶ 6 (3-9) 10 (5-20) 15 (10-29) 10 (5-20)
4 Conditional probability of death due to side effects if they occur when SNPTB is treated¶ 5 (3-5) 10 (4.5-20) 12.5 (5-25) 8 (5-20)
5 Conditional probability of morbidity as a result of side effects when SNPTB is treated¶ 10 (7-15) 25 (10-50) 15 (10-30) 15 (10-30)
6 Absolute probability of mortality arising from side effects of anti-TB treatment¶× 0.25 (0.11-0.45) 1.5 (0.71-10) 1(0.22-4.0) 0.70 (0.23-3.1)
7 Absolute probability of morbidity arising from side effect of anti-TB treatment¶π 0.6 (0.3-1) 3.0 (1-7.4) 3 (0.57-8) 1.5 (0.6-4.6)
1. ¶p < 0.001.
2. × Calculated as row 3 × row 4.
3. π calculated as row 3 × row 5.
4. *p < 0.01.