A three-step approach for the derivation and validation of high-performing predictive models using an operational dataset: congestive heart failure readmission case study

Table 3 Performance characteristics of final models

	AUC	Accuracy	Sens.	Spec.	PPV	NPV
2003-2012
Without discretization	80.3	87.23	43.8	91.3	31.82	94.58
With discretization	83	85.64	43.8	89.5	28	94.48
2008-2012
Without discretization	83.8	90.4	56.3	93.6	45	95.8
With discretization	86.8	91.5	62.5	94.2	50	96.4
2009-2012
Without discretization	83.5	86.7	62.5	89	38.46	96.23
With discretization	85	86.17	56.3	89	32.14	95.63

The models were developed using the strategy outlined in Figure 1. The results are shown for the three derivation datasets: 2003-2012, 2008-2012, and 2009-2012 without/with discretization; Sens. = sensitivity, spec. = specificity, PPV = positive predictive value, NPV = negative predictive value. The best results are indicated in bold rows.

ISSN: 1472-6947