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Table 3 Starting ranges used in first round of model calibration – ranges were narrowed with successive rounds of calibration to achieve improved fit to the outcomes reported in the intensive follow-up arm of the Pietra trial[52]

From: A simulation model of colorectal cancer surveillance and recurrence

Parameter

Definition

Starting range (inclusive)

Final calibrated parameter value

r d

Rate per 3-month cycle at which recurrences transition from undetectable to detectable

0.05 - 0.12

0.092

x ds

Baseline (Di = 0) presymptomatic window

1 week – 9 months

17 weeks

x du

Baseline (Di = 0) window of resectability

1 week – 9 months

6 weeks

r s

Increment in presymptomatic window for each additional unit of Di (expressed as a rate per 3-month cycle)

−0.025 - 0.15

0.07

r u

Increment in window of resectability for each additional unit of Di (expressed as a rate per 3-month cycle)

0 - 0.15

0.11

σ ds

Standard deviation of normally-distributed error term for presymptomatic window

1 week – 6 months

11 weeks

m

Background five-year cumulative probability of mortality from non-CRC causes

1% - 20%

1.6%a

  1. aBy comparison, five year cumulative probability of death from any cause in the Italian population for a group with the age and gender makeup of the calibration group has been estimated at 6.1% for 1990 [51].