Table 3 Reported and forecasted TB cases for 2011
From: A hybrid seasonal prediction model for tuberculosis incidence in China
Date | Reported cases | Forecasted cases | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Â | Â | SARIMA model | Hybrid model |
January | 99617 | 97969 | 101914 |
February | 98157 | 99085 | 104172 |
March | 135848 | 144081 | 134218 |
April | 129351 | 145607 | 134200 |
May | 125129 | 135715 | 127165 |
June | 119344 | 135855 | 127130 |
July | 112647 | 129515 | 119442 |
August | 115140 | 125768 | 110901 |
September | 106925 | 119794 | 105334 |
October | 100392 | 109934 | 108230 |
November | 110662 | 112293 | 107170 |
December | 104710 | 115860 | 105263 |
Error | Â | Â | Â |
MSE | Â | 125120982.998 | 22749934.518 |
MAE | Â | 9737.576 | 4093.497 |
MAPE | Â | 0.084 | 0.037 |