From: Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach
 | CRC mortality | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Risk factor | 45-79 years old | 45-54 years old | 55-64 years old | 65-79 years old |
Baseline risk, δ 1 =δ 2 =δ 3 =δ 4 =δ 5 = 0 |  |  |  |  |
CRC mortality rate | 175 (150,212) | 13 (10,20) | 43 (35,56) | 121 (105,1142) |
 | Rate ratios relative to a cohort without the risk factor | |||
Increased adenoma incidence | ||||
10% more adenomas | 1.09 (1.08,1.10) | 1.10 (1.07,1.12) | 1.10 (1.08,1.11) | 1.09 (1.08,1.10) |
25% more adenomas | 1.23 (1.21,1.25) | 1.25 (1.22,1.27) | 1.24 (1.22,1.26) | 1.23 (1.20,1.25) |
50% more adenomas | 1.45 (1.41,1.49) | 1.49 (1.46,1.52) | 1.48 (1.44,1.51) | 1.45 (1.40,1.49) |
100% more adenomas | 1.89 (1.79,1.96) | 1.98 (1.92,2.02) | 1.95 (1.87,2.00) | 1.86 (1.75,1.96) |
Faster adenoma growth | ||||
10% faster | 1.22 (1.18,1.26) | 1.31 (1.23,1.39) | 1.25 (1.19,1.30) | 1.20 (1.16,1.23) |
20% faster | 1.49 (1.39,1.59) | 1.75 (1.53,1.93) | 1.59 (1.46,1.71) | 1.44 (1.35,1.52) |
30% faster | 1.85 (1.67,2.02) | 2.37 (1.95,2.75) | 2.03 (1.77,2.26) | 1.73 (1.58,1.89) |
50% faster | 2.88 (2.43,3.34) | 4.57 (3.30,5.81) | 3.39 (2.75,4.04) | 2.54 (2.17,2.93) |
Preclinical transition at smaller sizes | ||||
As if 5% larger | 1.13 (1.11,1.15) | 1.18 (1.13,1.22) | 1.15 (1.12,1.18) | 1.12 (1.10,1.14) |
As if 10% larger | 1.26 (1.22,1.30) | 1.37 (1.28,1.45) | 1.30 (1.24,1.36) | 1.24 (1.19,1.28) |
As if 20% larger | 1.53 (1.43,1.62) | 1.80 (1.59,1.98) | 1.64 (1.50,1.75) | 1.48 (1.39,1.56) |
As if 30% larger | 1.81 (1.66,1.96) | 2.28 (1.92,2.59) | 1.98 (1.76,2.18) | 1.71 (1.57,1.85) |
Shorter sojourn time | ||||
10% reduction | 1.01 (1.01,1.03) | 1.02 (1.00,1.05) | 1.02 (1.00,1.03) | 1.01 (1.00,1.03) |
20% reduction | 1.03 (1.01,1.05) | 1.05 (1.01,1.09) | 1.04 (1.02,1.06) | 1.03 (1.01,1.05) |
50% reduction | 1.08 (1.04,1.12) | 1.13 (1.06,1.22) | 1.09 (1.05,1.15) | 1.07 (1.04,1.12) |
75% reduction | 1.12 (1.07,1.19) | 1.20 (1.11,1.34) | 1.14 (1.08,1.24) | 1.10 (1.06,1.18) |
Other-cause survival | ||||
5% reduction | 0.95 (0.94,0.95) | 1.00 (0.97,1.02) | 1.00 (0.98,1.01) | 0.98 (0.96,0.99) |
10% reduction | 0.87 (0.85,0.88) | 0.99 (0.97,1.02) | 0.99 (0.98,1.01) | 0.94 (0.93,0.96) |
15% reduction | 0.76 (0.73,0.78) | 0.99 (0.97,1.01) | 0.98 (0.97,1.00) | 0.89 (0.87,0.90) |
20% reduction | 0.63 (0.60,0.66) | 0.98 (0.96,1.01) | 0.97 (0.95,0.99) | 0.81 (0.79,0.84) |