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Table 2 Estimated impact of a hypothetical fixed risk factor on CRC mortality, with 95% prediction intervals

From: Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

 

CRC mortality

Risk factor

45-79 years old

45-54 years old

55-64 years old

65-79 years old

Baseline risk, δ 1 =δ 2 =δ 3 =δ 4 =δ 5 = 0

    

CRC mortality rate

175 (150,212)

13 (10,20)

43 (35,56)

121 (105,1142)

 

Rate ratios relative to a cohort without the risk factor

Increased adenoma incidence

10% more adenomas

1.09 (1.08,1.10)

1.10 (1.07,1.12)

1.10 (1.08,1.11)

1.09 (1.08,1.10)

25% more adenomas

1.23 (1.21,1.25)

1.25 (1.22,1.27)

1.24 (1.22,1.26)

1.23 (1.20,1.25)

50% more adenomas

1.45 (1.41,1.49)

1.49 (1.46,1.52)

1.48 (1.44,1.51)

1.45 (1.40,1.49)

100% more adenomas

1.89 (1.79,1.96)

1.98 (1.92,2.02)

1.95 (1.87,2.00)

1.86 (1.75,1.96)

Faster adenoma growth

10% faster

1.22 (1.18,1.26)

1.31 (1.23,1.39)

1.25 (1.19,1.30)

1.20 (1.16,1.23)

20% faster

1.49 (1.39,1.59)

1.75 (1.53,1.93)

1.59 (1.46,1.71)

1.44 (1.35,1.52)

30% faster

1.85 (1.67,2.02)

2.37 (1.95,2.75)

2.03 (1.77,2.26)

1.73 (1.58,1.89)

50% faster

2.88 (2.43,3.34)

4.57 (3.30,5.81)

3.39 (2.75,4.04)

2.54 (2.17,2.93)

Preclinical transition at smaller sizes

As if 5% larger

1.13 (1.11,1.15)

1.18 (1.13,1.22)

1.15 (1.12,1.18)

1.12 (1.10,1.14)

As if 10% larger

1.26 (1.22,1.30)

1.37 (1.28,1.45)

1.30 (1.24,1.36)

1.24 (1.19,1.28)

As if 20% larger

1.53 (1.43,1.62)

1.80 (1.59,1.98)

1.64 (1.50,1.75)

1.48 (1.39,1.56)

As if 30% larger

1.81 (1.66,1.96)

2.28 (1.92,2.59)

1.98 (1.76,2.18)

1.71 (1.57,1.85)

Shorter sojourn time

10% reduction

1.01 (1.01,1.03)

1.02 (1.00,1.05)

1.02 (1.00,1.03)

1.01 (1.00,1.03)

20% reduction

1.03 (1.01,1.05)

1.05 (1.01,1.09)

1.04 (1.02,1.06)

1.03 (1.01,1.05)

50% reduction

1.08 (1.04,1.12)

1.13 (1.06,1.22)

1.09 (1.05,1.15)

1.07 (1.04,1.12)

75% reduction

1.12 (1.07,1.19)

1.20 (1.11,1.34)

1.14 (1.08,1.24)

1.10 (1.06,1.18)

Other-cause survival

5% reduction

0.95 (0.94,0.95)

1.00 (0.97,1.02)

1.00 (0.98,1.01)

0.98 (0.96,0.99)

10% reduction

0.87 (0.85,0.88)

0.99 (0.97,1.02)

0.99 (0.98,1.01)

0.94 (0.93,0.96)

15% reduction

0.76 (0.73,0.78)

0.99 (0.97,1.01)

0.98 (0.97,1.00)

0.89 (0.87,0.90)

20% reduction

0.63 (0.60,0.66)

0.98 (0.96,1.01)

0.97 (0.95,0.99)

0.81 (0.79,0.84)

  1. The table shows the CRC death rates per 10,000 life years in the cohort without risk factors, and relative rates comparing CRC death rates cohorts with risk factors to cohorts without risk factors. 95% prediction intervals are shown in parenthesis.