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Table 2 Estimated impact of a hypothetical fixed risk factor on CRC mortality, with 95% prediction intervals

From: Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

  CRC mortality
Risk factor 45-79 years old 45-54 years old 55-64 years old 65-79 years old
Baseline risk, δ 1 2 3 4 5 = 0     
CRC mortality rate 175 (150,212) 13 (10,20) 43 (35,56) 121 (105,1142)
  Rate ratios relative to a cohort without the risk factor
Increased adenoma incidence
10% more adenomas 1.09 (1.08,1.10) 1.10 (1.07,1.12) 1.10 (1.08,1.11) 1.09 (1.08,1.10)
25% more adenomas 1.23 (1.21,1.25) 1.25 (1.22,1.27) 1.24 (1.22,1.26) 1.23 (1.20,1.25)
50% more adenomas 1.45 (1.41,1.49) 1.49 (1.46,1.52) 1.48 (1.44,1.51) 1.45 (1.40,1.49)
100% more adenomas 1.89 (1.79,1.96) 1.98 (1.92,2.02) 1.95 (1.87,2.00) 1.86 (1.75,1.96)
Faster adenoma growth
10% faster 1.22 (1.18,1.26) 1.31 (1.23,1.39) 1.25 (1.19,1.30) 1.20 (1.16,1.23)
20% faster 1.49 (1.39,1.59) 1.75 (1.53,1.93) 1.59 (1.46,1.71) 1.44 (1.35,1.52)
30% faster 1.85 (1.67,2.02) 2.37 (1.95,2.75) 2.03 (1.77,2.26) 1.73 (1.58,1.89)
50% faster 2.88 (2.43,3.34) 4.57 (3.30,5.81) 3.39 (2.75,4.04) 2.54 (2.17,2.93)
Preclinical transition at smaller sizes
As if 5% larger 1.13 (1.11,1.15) 1.18 (1.13,1.22) 1.15 (1.12,1.18) 1.12 (1.10,1.14)
As if 10% larger 1.26 (1.22,1.30) 1.37 (1.28,1.45) 1.30 (1.24,1.36) 1.24 (1.19,1.28)
As if 20% larger 1.53 (1.43,1.62) 1.80 (1.59,1.98) 1.64 (1.50,1.75) 1.48 (1.39,1.56)
As if 30% larger 1.81 (1.66,1.96) 2.28 (1.92,2.59) 1.98 (1.76,2.18) 1.71 (1.57,1.85)
Shorter sojourn time
10% reduction 1.01 (1.01,1.03) 1.02 (1.00,1.05) 1.02 (1.00,1.03) 1.01 (1.00,1.03)
20% reduction 1.03 (1.01,1.05) 1.05 (1.01,1.09) 1.04 (1.02,1.06) 1.03 (1.01,1.05)
50% reduction 1.08 (1.04,1.12) 1.13 (1.06,1.22) 1.09 (1.05,1.15) 1.07 (1.04,1.12)
75% reduction 1.12 (1.07,1.19) 1.20 (1.11,1.34) 1.14 (1.08,1.24) 1.10 (1.06,1.18)
Other-cause survival
5% reduction 0.95 (0.94,0.95) 1.00 (0.97,1.02) 1.00 (0.98,1.01) 0.98 (0.96,0.99)
10% reduction 0.87 (0.85,0.88) 0.99 (0.97,1.02) 0.99 (0.98,1.01) 0.94 (0.93,0.96)
15% reduction 0.76 (0.73,0.78) 0.99 (0.97,1.01) 0.98 (0.97,1.00) 0.89 (0.87,0.90)
20% reduction 0.63 (0.60,0.66) 0.98 (0.96,1.01) 0.97 (0.95,0.99) 0.81 (0.79,0.84)
  1. The table shows the CRC death rates per 10,000 life years in the cohort without risk factors, and relative rates comparing CRC death rates cohorts with risk factors to cohorts without risk factors. 95% prediction intervals are shown in parenthesis.