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Table 3 Summary of performance of outbreak detection algorithms for RRV data from Brisbane and Townsville.

From: Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data: a case study using ross river virus disease

Method LGA
  Brisbane Townsville
  TP FP FN
(n = 19)
Peak FN
(n = 9)
TP FP FN
(n = 23)
Peak FN
(n = 11)
HLM-A 40.0 10.0 54.5 62.5 12.9 19.4 50.0 60.0
    (n = 11) (n = 8)    (n = 8) (n = 5)
HLM-B 42.1 5.3 54.5 50.0 20.0 24.0 50.0 60.0
    (n = 11) (n = 8)    (n = 8) (n = 5)
C1-A 41.2 41.2 68.4 44.4 23.3 37.2 56.5 36.4
C1-B 46.2 30.8 68.4 44.4 35.0 45.0 69.6 45.5
C2-A 53.3 33.3 57.9 33.3 36.4 54.6 65.2 36.4
C2-B 58.3 16.7 63.2 22.2 31.6 36.8 73.9 45.5
C2-C 60.0 40.0 63.2 22.2 27.8 44.4 73.9 45.5
C2-D 60.0 30.0 68.4 33.3 41.7 33.3 78.3 54.5
NBC-A 81.8 9.1 52.6 22.2 57.1 19.1 56.5 18.1
NBC-B 73.3 13.3 42.1 11.1 57.9 31.6 56.5 18.1
NBC-C 88.9 11.1 52.6 0.0 57.1 42.9 60.9 18.1
NBC-D 72.7 27.3 47.4 33.3 53.3 40.0 60.9 18.1
NBC-E 40.6 34.4 47.4 33.3 44.8 13.8 47.8 36.4
NBC-F 40.6 37.5 47.4 33.3 46.9 21.9 39.1 27.3
POD-A 61.5 23.1 36.4 12.5 69.2 23.1 37.5 0.0
    (n = 11) (n = 8)    (n = 8) (n = 5)
POD-B 70.0 20.0 36.4 12.5 75.0 25.0 37.5 0.0
    (n = 11) (n = 8)    (n = 8) (n = 5)
SaTScan 62.5 25.0 45.5 25.0 44.4 44.4 50.0 20.0
    (n = 11) (n = 8)    (n = 8) (n = 5)
  1. True positive (TP) values represent the percentage of signals that overlapped with a DSP, false positives (FP) are categorised as the percentage of signals lasting ≥2 weeks which do not overlap with a DSP, false negatives (FN) are the percentage of all DSPs that were not detected by the algorithm, and peak FN is the percentage of DSPs starting between 1 December and 30 April that were not detected by the algorithm. Algorithm codes are the same as detailed in Figure 1.