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Table 3 Summary of performance of outbreak detection algorithms for RRV data from Brisbane and Townsville.

From: Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data: a case study using ross river virus disease

Method

LGA

 

Brisbane

Townsville

 

TP

FP

FN

(n = 19)

Peak FN

(n = 9)

TP

FP

FN

(n = 23)

Peak FN

(n = 11)

HLM-A

40.0

10.0

54.5

62.5

12.9

19.4

50.0

60.0

   

(n = 11)

(n = 8)

  

(n = 8)

(n = 5)

HLM-B

42.1

5.3

54.5

50.0

20.0

24.0

50.0

60.0

   

(n = 11)

(n = 8)

  

(n = 8)

(n = 5)

C1-A

41.2

41.2

68.4

44.4

23.3

37.2

56.5

36.4

C1-B

46.2

30.8

68.4

44.4

35.0

45.0

69.6

45.5

C2-A

53.3

33.3

57.9

33.3

36.4

54.6

65.2

36.4

C2-B

58.3

16.7

63.2

22.2

31.6

36.8

73.9

45.5

C2-C

60.0

40.0

63.2

22.2

27.8

44.4

73.9

45.5

C2-D

60.0

30.0

68.4

33.3

41.7

33.3

78.3

54.5

NBC-A

81.8

9.1

52.6

22.2

57.1

19.1

56.5

18.1

NBC-B

73.3

13.3

42.1

11.1

57.9

31.6

56.5

18.1

NBC-C

88.9

11.1

52.6

0.0

57.1

42.9

60.9

18.1

NBC-D

72.7

27.3

47.4

33.3

53.3

40.0

60.9

18.1

NBC-E

40.6

34.4

47.4

33.3

44.8

13.8

47.8

36.4

NBC-F

40.6

37.5

47.4

33.3

46.9

21.9

39.1

27.3

POD-A

61.5

23.1

36.4

12.5

69.2

23.1

37.5

0.0

   

(n = 11)

(n = 8)

  

(n = 8)

(n = 5)

POD-B

70.0

20.0

36.4

12.5

75.0

25.0

37.5

0.0

   

(n = 11)

(n = 8)

  

(n = 8)

(n = 5)

SaTScan

62.5

25.0

45.5

25.0

44.4

44.4

50.0

20.0

   

(n = 11)

(n = 8)

  

(n = 8)

(n = 5)

  1. True positive (TP) values represent the percentage of signals that overlapped with a DSP, false positives (FP) are categorised as the percentage of signals lasting ≥2 weeks which do not overlap with a DSP, false negatives (FN) are the percentage of all DSPs that were not detected by the algorithm, and peak FN is the percentage of DSPs starting between 1 December and 30 April that were not detected by the algorithm. Algorithm codes are the same as detailed in Figure 1.