Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model

Table 1 Input Parameters for Base Case Model.

Screening
Sensitivity of Screening Test (0-10 yrs)	0.87 [7]
Sensitivity of Screening Test +10 yrs (= 1-specificity)	0.22 [7]
Simulated Age at First Screening	70
Interval Between Screens	Once
Treatment
Effectiveness	50%
Adverse Event Rate (Years After Initiation)
	Years After Initiation
	0-1	1-5	5-10	10-15	15-20
AE Rate	10%	2%	2%	2%	2%
Discontinue Treatment Given AE	No
AE Monitoring Interval (First Year)	0.5 yrs (= 2 in year 1)
General
% Cohort Male	46% [17]
Annual Discount Rate	3%
Treatment Persistence (Discontinuation)
	In first 6 months			In second 6 months
Alzheimer's Disease CI Model 1 [24]	0%			68%
Alzheimer's Disease CI Model 2 [26]	0%			47%
Breast Cancer Recurrence - Tamoxifen[21]	17%			5.1%
Hypertension ACE Inhibitors [23]	25%			4%
Incidence Rates
	Age Gender Probability Patient Will Develop AD[15, 16]
	Male		Female
50-54 (Value at age 52 in distribution)	0		0
55-59 (57)	0		0
60-64 (62)	0		0
65-69 (67)	0.0007		0.0002
70-74 (72)	0.0014		0.0004
75-79 (77)	0.0025		0.003
80-84 (82)	0.0065		0.0074
85+ (Constant for ages 85-100)	0.016		0.03

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