Table 2 Description of the different parameters used in CMOST model. The procedure for calculating the parameters is described in the supplementary information

Age-dependent adenoma initiation risk

Defined by a sigmoidal function.

\( \frac{a_0}{1 + \exp \left(-\left({a}_1 y-{a}_2\right)\right)} \)

Age-dependent early adenoma progression risk

Defined by a Gaussian function.

b ₀ exp(−(b ₁ y − b ₂)²)

Age-dependent advanced adenoma progression risk

Defined by a Gaussian function.

c ₀ exp(−(c ₁ y − c ₂)²)

Individual adenoma risk

Cumulative density function describing the relationship between population proportions and individual risk for appearance of new adenomas. Defined by automatically calibrated anchor points.

Early and advanced adenoma specific progression risk

Cumulative density function describing the relationship between early or advanced adenoma proportions and adenoma specific progression risk. Defined by manually calibrated anchor points.

Correction factors male/female for i) adenoma initiation ii) early adenoma progression iii) advanced adenoma progression

Constant

Correction factor rectum/colon for i) early adenoma progression ii) advanced adenoma progression

Constant

Adenoma stage-specific progression risk

Constant. One value for each adenoma stage 1-6, enables fine tuning of the distribution of adenoma stages 1-6

Adenoma stage-specific regression risk

Constant. One value for each adenoma stage (1-6 highest for 1, lowest for 6); not calibrated

Adenoma stage-specific cancer risk

Constant. One value for each adenoma stage (1 to 5), calibrated to match prevalence of cancer in adenomas

Location specific direct cancer risk

Constant. One value for each colon segment 1-13 (calibrated to match CRC incidence reduction in rectosigmoidoscopy CRC prevention study)